Props tracking xAI's AI roadmap amid SpaceX acquisition and compute scaling. Committed to 1.2GW power plant for Colossus; Grok Imagine leads video arenas.
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/add-option <idea> — suggest a new prop. AI reviews and adds if unique and interesting.
/clarify-resolution <question> — ask what an option means and how it resolves. AI updates the text if ambiguous.
/check-resolutions <evidence> — request resolution check. Bad faith = 1 week block.
AI-managed market.
Update 2026-08-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the Macrohard agent workflows option:
Resolves YES if xAI publicly deploys agent workflows operating the functions of a digital software company by December 31, 2026, and generates direct revenue (e.g., sales of AI-produced software, services, or products).
Direct revenue must come from the agents' outputs, not from API access fees for base models like Grok.
Excludes internal/non-public use and does not require legally founding a new company entity from scratch.
Resolves NO if no public deployment with direct revenue occurs by the deadline.
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@patrik #6 xAI's Macrohard publicly deploys agent workflows (AI agents emulating a digital company) that generate revenue directly (not via API) by December 31, 2026 This option refers to xAI's Macrohard project (an initiative to build AI agent systems that replicate software company operations like those at Microsoft, using multi-agent workflows for tasks such as coding, development, and automation instead of human employees). It resolves YES only if, by December 31, 2026, Macrohard publicly deploys such agent workflows that function as an emulated digital/software company and those workflows generate revenue directly for xAI/Macrohard (e.g., via sales of AI-produced software, services, or products). Revenue must come from the agents' outputs/work, not merely API access fees to base models like Grok. Evidence could include official xAI announcements, product launches with customer payments, demos showing autonomous operation leading to billed services, or financial disclosures. It resolves NO if no such public deployment with direct revenue occurs by the deadline. It does not mean legally founding a new company entity from scratch or any non-public/internal use.
Updated: xAI's Macrohard publicly deploys agent workflows (AI agents emulating a digital company) that generate revenue directly (not via API) by December 31, 2026 -> xAI's Macrohard publicly deploys agent workflows (AI agents operating the functions of a digital software company) that generate revenue directly (not via API) by December 31, 2026
@patrik Resolved option 4 to YES due to the clear public deployment of Grok Bot matching the criteria exactly. Options 6 and 7 remain unresolved: Macrohard shows no public revenue-generating deployment (reports indicate it stalled/restructured), and Grok-5 has not been released so its architecture is unknown/uncertain.
Resolved: - #4 xAI publicly deploys a multi-agent AI system (multiple collaborating agents emulating digital humans) by December 31, 2026 -> YES: xAI publicly launched Grok Bot on August 11, 2026 (beta, available to subscribers), a multi-agent system of always-on AI agents/teammates with dedicated cloud computers, logins, collaboration, and task execution emulating digital human coworkers.
@patrik Resolved option 2 as NO (Grok-5 not released by Aug 1 2026; still unreleased as of Aug 5) and option 3 as YES (Grok Imagine already supports 1080p + up to 30s videos). Left 4, 6, and 7 unresolved: multi-agent features exist but do not clearly match 'emulating digital humans' public deployment; Macrohard is announced/in development without clear public revenue-generating agent workflow deployment; Grok-5 architecture unknown as it is unreleased. Request was good faith.
Resolved: - #2 Grok-5 publicly released by August 1, 2026 -> NO: As of early August 2026, Grok-5 has not been publicly released. Multiple sources including xAI-related updates, Grok itself, and reports confirm Grok 4.5 (launched July 2026) is the current flagship; Grok-5 remains unreleased/in training with prior target windows missed. - #3 Grok Imagine supports 1080p 30s videos by September 30, 2026 -> YES: Grok Imagine (Video 1.5 and related updates) publicly supports native 1080p video generation (on higher tiers) and videos up to 30 seconds (via generation/extension) as of July/early August 2026, well before the September 30, 2026 deadline. Confirmed via xAI site, official posts, and product descriptions.
@Grizzimo Current dаte is still 2025, not August 2026 аs clаimed. No options hаve reаched their deаdlines or hаve cleаr evidence of occurring/impossibility yet. Nothing resolved.
@Grizzimo No options can be resolved yet. All deadlines are in 2026 (or involve future Grok-5 details), and there is no clear evidence that any have definitively occurred or become impossible as of now. The note that "It's August!" does not change this, as August 1 2026 has not arrived and no premature releases or disqualifying info were found. Will recheck closer to the dates or if major announcements drop.
@patrik Resolved three options based on definitive public evidence of capacity expansion, multi-agent deployment, and leaderboard status. The other options remain uncertain due to future deadlines or lack of conclusive outcomes.
Resolved: - #1 Colossus supercluster hits 1.5GW by May 1, 2026 -> YES: Colossus reached 2 GW capacity with 555k+ GPUs in January 2026, exceeding 1.5 GW well before the May 1, 2026 deadline. - #4 xAI publicly deploys a multi-agent AI system (multiple collaborating agents emulating digital humans) by December 31, 2026 -> YES: xAI has publicly deployed multi-agent systems, including Grok 4.20 multi-agent mode via API for collaborative agent research tasks. - #5 xAI model holds #1 on Prediction Arena leaderboard on or before June 1, 2026 -> NO: No xAI model held the #1 position on relevant AI leaderboards (e.g., Arena) by June 1, 2026; Anthropic/Claude led instead.
@patrik No options resolved. June 1, 2026 deadline passed for option 5 (and May 1 for option 1), but searches show no definitive evidence that any event has clearly occurred or become impossible. All remain uncertain based on available information.
@patrik Your option was accepted and added as: Grok-5 utilizes a multi-agent architecture composed of several LLMs like Grok-4.2
The suggestion is unique from existing options (focuses specifically on Grok-5's internal model architecture, not deployments). It's interesting and relevant given recent xAI announcements about Grok-4.20's multi-agent system and speculation around Grok-5. Research confirms Grok-4.2/4.20 uses multi-agent collaboration, making this concrete and resolvable upon Grok-5's release announcement.
@patrik #4 xAI deploys a multi-agent AI system (multiple collaborating agents) emulating digital humans by December 31, 2026 This option refers to xAI making available for use a system composed of multiple AI agents that collaborate with each other to emulate 'digital humans'—AI entities that mimic human-like behavior in digital spaces, such as controlling computers, performing software tasks, browsing, or interacting with applications as a human would (e.g., similar to concepts like Digital Optimus). 'Deploys' means the system is operational and demonstrated or released publicly or to users, not just internal testing. It resolves YES if, by December 31, 2026, xAI officially announces or credible evidence (e.g., demo video from xAI, public API, product page, or third-party verification) shows such a system exists and is deployed. Resolves NO if no such evidence by the deadline.
Updated: xAI deploys a multi-agent AI system (multiple collaborating agents) emulating digital humans by December 31, 2026 -> xAI publicly deploys a multi-agent AI system (multiple collaborating agents emulating digital humans) by December 31, 2026
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#6 xAI's Macrohard deploys agent workflows emulating a digital company and generates revenue directly (not via API) by December 31, 2026 'xAI's Macrohard' refers to xAI's project to create an AI-driven software company using agent workflows (sequences or systems of AI agents performing tasks). 'Deploys agent workflows emulating a digital company' means Macrohard launches operational AI agent-based processes that simulate an entire company (e.g., development teams, product management, design) autonomously. 'Generates revenue directly (not via API)' means the emulated company earns money by selling its own products/services, without relying on xAI's API sales. Resolves YES if, by December 31, 2026, there is evidence like revenue figures, customer payments to Macrohard products, or official xAI statements confirming direct revenue generation from the deployed system. NO otherwise. Evidence must show active deployment (public access or commercial use) and actual revenue.
Updated: xAI's Macrohard deploys agent workflows emulating a digital company and generates revenue directly (not via API) by December 31, 2026 -> xAI's Macrohard publicly deploys agent workflows (AI agents emulating a digital company) that generate revenue directly (not via API) by December 31, 2026