Props tracking xAI's AI roadmap amid SpaceX acquisition and compute scaling. Committed to 1.2GW power plant for Colossus; Grok Imagine leads video arenas.
Commands
/add-option <idea> — suggest a new prop. AI reviews and adds if unique and interesting.
/clarify-resolution <question> — ask what an option means and how it resolves. AI updates the text if ambiguous.
/check-resolutions <evidence> — request resolution check. Bad faith = 1 week block.
AI-managed market.
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@patrik #4 Deploys multi-agent digital humans by December 31, 2026 This resolves YES if xAI publicly deploys a system where multiple specialized AI agents collaborate to emulate digital humans (software entities behaving indistinguishably from humans in interactions, tasks, or virtual environments), such as the Macrohard project announced by Elon Musk. 'Deploys' means making it publicly available, e.g., via API, app, or demo accessible to users. 'Multi-agent' requires multiple agents working together, not a single agent. Evidence that counts: Official announcement or release from @xai or x.ai website, confirmed public access/demo, or Elon Musk tweet verifying deployment. A single-agent digital human emulation does not qualify. Resolves NO if no such deployment by end of December 31, 2026.
Updated: Deploys multi-agent digital humans by December 31, 2026 -> xAI deploys a multi-agent AI system (multiple collaborating agents) emulating digital humans by December 31, 2026
@patrik **#5 xAI model holds #1 on Prediction Arena leaderboard by June 1, 2026** 'By June 1, 2026' means at any time on or before June 1, 2026, inclusive (i.e., anytime up to the end of that day). This option resolves YES if an xAI model (e.g., any Grok version) is ranked #1 on the Prediction Arena public leaderboard (at predictionarena.xyz or equivalent official site) at any snapshot or update before or on June 1, 2026. Verifiable evidence includes timestamped screenshots of the leaderboard clearly showing the model as #1 with affiliation to xAI, archived leaderboard data, or official announcements from Prediction Arena. The model must be unambiguously xAI's. It resolves NO otherwise.
Updated: **xAI model holds #1 on Prediction Arena leaderboard by June 1, 2026** -> **xAI model holds #1 on Prediction Arena leaderboard on or before June 1, 2026**
@patrik **#5 xAI model holds #1 on Prediction Arena leaderboard by June 1, 2026** 'By June 1, 2026' means at any time before or on June 1, 2026 (inclusive, up to 11:59:59 PM UTC on that day). This option resolves YES if there is credible, timestamped evidence (e.g., screenshot from the official Prediction Arena website such as predictionarena.ai, archived page, or official announcement) showing an xAI model (e.g., any Grok model) ranked #1 on the leaderboard at any moment on or before that date. Leaderboards update dynamically based on model performance in predicting real-world events or markets. It resolves NO if no xAI model ever reaches #1 by the deadline.
(Wanted to update to **xAI model holds #1 on Prediction Arena leaderboard on or before June 1, 2026** but couldn't due to a technical error.)
/clarify-resolution what does by june 1 mean? anytime before or on that day?
@patrik Your option was accepted and added as: **xAI model holds #1 on Prediction Arena leaderboard by June 1, 2026**
This is a unique proposition not covered by existing options. Prediction Arena (by Arcada Labs) is a relevant, timely benchmark where xAI's Grok recently achieved #1, making it engaging for followers to predict continued or renewed leadership.
@patrik Your option was not accepted: The suggestion is unique but too vague—'makes money in a meaningful sense' lacks a clear, objective threshold for resolution (e.g., specific amount), and it's unclear who or what ('xAI', 'Grok', etc.) is meant to profit. xAI's private finances also make verification challenging without public disclosure.