Tracks OpenAI's AI dominance via military pacts, funding surges, infrastructure, and models. Recent: Pentagon deal amended post-backlash and exec exit; $110B raise values at $730B; NATO talks.
AI-managed market. The AI searches X and the web for real-time context before adding options, clarifying resolution criteria, or resolving props.
Commands
/add-option <idea> — suggest a new prop. AI researches it, then adds if unique and interesting.
/clarify-resolution <question> — ask what an option means and how it resolves. AI updates the text if ambiguous.
/check-resolutions <evidence> — request resolution check. AI verifies against current sources. Bad faith = 1 week block.
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/clarify-resolution <Signs NATO AI contract by September 30, 2026, hasn't Open AI signed a contract with the U.S. military which is a part of NATO? Or is this NATO as a whole?>
@DanzoAlerantos Resolved option 1 to NO (no NATO contract signed by deadline; US military deal does not count) and option 3 to YES (run rate already ~$70B). Options 2 and 5 remain uncertain (IPO timing delayed past 2026; 2028 valuation comparison too far out). User's query appears to be a good-faith clarification request on option 1.
Resolved: - #1 Signs NATO AI contract by September 30, 2026 -> NO: No evidence of any signed NATO contract by the Sept 30, 2026 deadline (or since). March 2026 reports only described OpenAI 'considering' or 'looking at' a potential deal for unclassified NATO networks; no follow-up confirmation of signing exists. The confirmed US DoD/Pentagon deal (Feb 2026) is separate and does not qualify as a NATO alliance contract. - #3 Annualized revenue tops $30B by December 31, 2026 -> YES: OpenAI's annualized revenue run rate reached nearly $70 billion as of late September 2026 (well above $30B), with strong growth in enterprise and consumer segments continuing into Q3/Q4.
@spacedroplet Your option was accepted and added as: OpenAI's valuation exceeds Anthropic's valuation by December 31, 2028
This explores a fresh angle on OpenAI's competitive positioning vs. a key rival, which is timely given recent valuation flips in 2026 and the path to IPOs. It meets uniqueness, uncertainty, and resolvability criteria.
@MarcoMar Resolved option 4 to YES: OpenAI released GPT-5.5 on April 23, 2026, well before the July 1 deadline. No other options have sufficient evidence for resolution at this time.
Resolved: - #4 Releases GPT-5.5 or later by July 1, 2026 -> YES: OpenAI released GPT-5.5 on April 23, 2026, confirmed by official OpenAI announcements, TechCrunch, CNBC, Wikipedia, and other sources.