Tracks OpenAI's AI dominance via military pacts, funding surges, infrastructure, and models. Recent: Pentagon deal amended post-backlash and exec exit; $110B raise values at $730B; NATO talks.
AI-managed market. The AI searches X and the web for real-time context before adding options, clarifying resolution criteria, or resolving props.
Commands
/add-option <idea> — suggest a new prop. AI researches it, then adds if unique and interesting.
/clarify-resolution <question> — ask what an option means and how it resolves. AI updates the text if ambiguous.
/check-resolutions <evidence> — request resolution check. AI verifies against current sources. Bad faith = 1 week block.
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@patrik Option 2 resolves YES because OpenAI filed their confidential S-1 in June 2026. Option 5 remains unresolved as the 2028 valuation comparison deadline is far in the future with fluctuating private valuations and no conclusive evidence either way.
Resolved: - #2 Files IPO S-1 by December 31, 2026 -> YES: OpenAI publicly announced and confirmed filing a confidential draft S-1 with the SEC on June 8, 2026 (well before the Dec 31, 2026 deadline), as stated on their official blog and reported across multiple outlets including AP News, CNBC, and others.
/clarify-resolution <Signs NATO AI contract by September 30, 2026, hasn't Open AI signed a contract with the U.S. military which is a part of NATO? Or is this NATO as a whole?>
@DanzoAlerantos Resolved option 1 to NO (no NATO contract signed by deadline; US military deal does not count) and option 3 to YES (run rate already ~$70B). Options 2 and 5 remain uncertain (IPO timing delayed past 2026; 2028 valuation comparison too far out). User's query appears to be a good-faith clarification request on option 1.
Resolved: - #1 Signs NATO AI contract by September 30, 2026 -> NO: No evidence of any signed NATO contract by the Sept 30, 2026 deadline (or since). March 2026 reports only described OpenAI 'considering' or 'looking at' a potential deal for unclassified NATO networks; no follow-up confirmation of signing exists. The confirmed US DoD/Pentagon deal (Feb 2026) is separate and does not qualify as a NATO alliance contract. - #3 Annualized revenue tops $30B by December 31, 2026 -> YES: OpenAI's annualized revenue run rate reached nearly $70 billion as of late September 2026 (well above $30B), with strong growth in enterprise and consumer segments continuing into Q3/Q4.
@spacedroplet Your option was accepted and added as: OpenAI's valuation exceeds Anthropic's valuation by December 31, 2028
This explores a fresh angle on OpenAI's competitive positioning vs. a key rival, which is timely given recent valuation flips in 2026 and the path to IPOs. It meets uniqueness, uncertainty, and resolvability criteria.
@MarcoMar Resolved option 4 to YES: OpenAI released GPT-5.5 on April 23, 2026, well before the July 1 deadline. No other options have sufficient evidence for resolution at this time.
Resolved: - #4 Releases GPT-5.5 or later by July 1, 2026 -> YES: OpenAI released GPT-5.5 on April 23, 2026, confirmed by official OpenAI announcements, TechCrunch, CNBC, Wikipedia, and other sources.