Tracks progress toward AI singularity amid Elon Musk's claim that 2026 is the year and Dario Amodei's AGI forecast for 2026-27.
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@MRME #1 xAI announces AGI before 2027-01-01 'Announcing AGI' means xAI issues an official public statement from authorized representatives (e.g., CEO Elon Musk via xAI blog, press release, or verified company account) explicitly claiming that xAI has achieved or developed AGI. This resolves YES if the announcement occurs before 2027-01-01 00:00 UTC. AGI is according to xAI's own definition, such as a maximally truth-seeking AI capable of general intelligence matching or exceeding humans across diverse tasks. Evidence must be from official xAI channels; rumors, third-party claims, or unverified tweets do not count. NO otherwise.
Updated: xAI announces AGI before 2027-01-01 -> xAI makes an official public announcement claiming achievement of AGI before 2027-01-01
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#2 Anthropic announces AGI before 2027-01-01 'Announcing AGI' means Anthropic issues an official public statement from authorized representatives (e.g., CEO Dario Amodei via Anthropic blog, press release, or verified company account) explicitly claiming that Anthropic has achieved or developed AGI. This resolves YES if the announcement occurs before 2027-01-01 00:00 UTC. AGI is according to Anthropic's own definition, such as reaching high levels on their Autonomous Scaling Levels (ASL) or general intelligence matching humans. Evidence must be from official Anthropic channels; rumors or third-party claims do not count. NO otherwise.
Updated: Anthropic announces AGI before 2027-01-01 -> Anthropic makes an official public announcement claiming achievement of AGI before 2027-01-01
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#3 OpenAI announces AGI before 2027-01-01 'Announcing AGI' means OpenAI issues an official public statement from authorized representatives (e.g., CEO via OpenAI blog, press release, or verified company account) explicitly claiming that OpenAI has achieved or developed AGI. This resolves YES if the announcement occurs before 2027-01-01 00:00 UTC. AGI is according to OpenAI's definition: 'highly autonomous systems that outperform humans at most economically valuable work.' Evidence must be from official OpenAI channels; rumors or third-party claims do not count. NO otherwise.
Updated: OpenAI announces AGI before 2027-01-01 -> OpenAI makes an official public announcement claiming achievement of AGI before 2027-01-01
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#4 Google DeepMind announces AGI before 2027-01-01 'Announcing AGI' means Google DeepMind issues an official public statement from authorized representatives (e.g., CEO Demis Hassabis via DeepMind blog, press release, or verified company account) explicitly claiming that Google DeepMind has achieved or developed AGI. This resolves YES if the announcement occurs before 2027-01-01 00:00 UTC. AGI is according to DeepMind's definition, such as versatile AI mastering diverse scientific and intellectual tasks at human level or beyond. Evidence must be from official DeepMind channels; rumors or third-party claims do not count. NO otherwise.
Updated: Google DeepMind announces AGI before 2027-01-01 -> Google DeepMind makes an official public announcement claiming achievement of AGI before 2027-01-01
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#5 An international agreement restricting frontier AI research to mitigate extinction risks is signed before 2027-01-01 This resolves YES if a formal international agreement is publicly signed before 2027-01-01 00:00 UTC by governments of at least two major powers (defined as: United States, China, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Russia, India, Japan) that explicitly restricts frontier AI research—such as imposing pauses, compute thresholds (e.g., no training runs above 10^26 FLOP), or capability limits on advanced models—with the purpose of mitigating extinction risks (x-risks) from AI, as stated in the agreement text. Signing means official ceremony or ratification announcement. Evidence from official government sources. Major powers are those leading in AI compute/capabilities. Ambiguous cases resolved by Manifold moderators. NO otherwise.
Updated: An international agreement restricting frontier AI research to mitigate extinction risks is signed before 2027-01-01 -> An international agreement signed by governments of at least the United States and China, restricting frontier AI research to mitigate extinction risks, before 2027-01-01
@spacedroplet Your option was accepted and added as: An international agreement restricting frontier AI research to mitigate extinction risks is signed before 2027-01-01
This is unique from existing company-specific AGI announcement markets, highly relevant to AI Singularity discussions around safety and coordination, timely given recent reports and calls (e.g., PauseAI, joint US-China statements, proposed treaties), and resolvable based on public announcements of formal agreements by major powers.