Resolution criteria

This is an independent multiple-choice market. Each sub-market / answer resolves independently to YES or NO based on the following criteria:

• Will global annual data center capital expenditure exceed $1.4 trillion in 2027?: Resolves to YES if an established market intelligence firm or financial institution (e.g., Dell'Oro Group, Gartner, IDC, or Goldman Sachs Research) reports that total global data center capital expenditure (CapEx) in calendar year 2027 exceeded $1,400,000,000,000 USD (nominal). Resolves to NO if official aggregate reports for calendar year 2027 place the total at or below $1.4 trillion. If estimates diverge across major tracker reports, resolution will rely on the consensus or median figure among Tier-1 tracking firms (Dell'Oro, Gartner, IDC).

• Will global annual data center CapEx grow at >25% CAGR from 2027 through 2030?: Resolves to YES if the Compound Annual Growth Rate $\text{CAGR} = (\frac{\text{CapEx}{2030}}{\text{CapEx}{2027}})^{1/3} - 1$ of global annual data center CapEx exceeds 25.0% based on retrospective full-year industry aggregate reports published after 2030 by Dell'Oro Group, Gartner, or IDC. Otherwise resolves to NO.

• Will YoY OpenRouter token volume growth at EOY 2027 exceed 1500%?: Resolves to YES if the total token volume processed by OpenRouter (as reported on official metrics pages such as openrouter.ai/rankings or public API reporting) during the final 30-day period of December 2027 reflects a greater than 1,500% year-over-year increase compared to the corresponding December 2026 period. Otherwise resolves to NO.

• Will OpenAI and Anthropic's combined calendar-year 2028 revenue exceed twice their combined calendar-year 2027 revenue?: Resolves to YES if the sum of OpenAI's and Anthropic's recognized GAAP/IFRS revenue for calendar year 2028 is strictly greater than $2.0 \times$ their combined recognized revenue for calendar year 2027, as verified by audited financial filings, official corporate investor reports, or credible primary reporting by major financial publications (e.g., The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, The Information, or Financial Times). Otherwise resolves to NO.

Any newly added answers should clearly define their benchmark metrics, data source, and time horizons.

Background

• Industry spending tracking by Dell'Oro Group, Gartner, and Morgan Stanley has seen massive upward revisions driven by hyperscaler AI infrastructure builds. Industry projections for global data center and AI capital expenditures have begun modeling figures crossing the $1 trillion mark annually towards the late 2020s.

• Sustained high-double-digit CAGR (>25%) through 2030 requires rapid hyperscaler hardware refresh cycles alongside sustained power grid and semiconductor capacity scaling.

• Aggregator volume on OpenRouter serves as a proxy for consumer and enterprise multi-model API traffic, which has experienced hyper-growth as reasoning models and agentic workflows expand.

• OpenAI and Anthropic represent the bulk of foundation model software revenues, but continuing multi-fold top-line doubling faces increasing base effects and price competition on inference token pricing.