![](/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Ffirebasestorage.googleapis.com%2Fv0%2Fb%2Fmantic-markets.appspot.com%2Fo%2Fdream%252FCd8PD3AQ94.png%3Falt%3Dmedia%26token%3D60a90dd4-4cc8-4978-8edd-d03fd0403479&w=3840&q=75)
By the beginning of 2035, will physicists and philosophers mostly agree on the correct interpretation of quantum mechanics?
Basic
35
Ṁ2.1k2035
12%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Or whatever theory has replaced it at the time.
"Mostly agree" here will mean upwards of 95% agreement in polls.
Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:
I see a problem with the agreement of philosophers. Since philosophy has become distinct from physics, it tends to attract those who still think that this is a matter of debate. In particular, what if philosophers from different countries disagree by that date?
It might be useful to have a separate market whose resolution is bound only to the opinions of physicists.
Related questions
Related questions
Which interpretation of Quantum Mechanics is closest to the truth?
Will a theory of everything (a theory that unites relativity and quantum mechanics) be found in physics by 2040?
26% chance
Will there be a major paradigm shift in physics, like Newtonian to Modern Physics, by the end of 2040?
36% chance
Will we know if gravity is fundamentally quantum by the end of 2030?
18% chance
Will future language models converge on "what Einstein would have thought of Many-Worlds?" before 2036?
46% chance
Will relational quantum mechanics become the consensus view by the end of 2040?
11% chance
Will quantum mechanical properties prove explanatory for another biological process by the end of 2024?
37% chance
Will AIs be widely recognized as having developed a new, innovative, foundational mathematical theory before 2030?
23% chance
In what year will quantum advantage be demonstrated for practical quantum chemistry problems? (before 2030)
2028
Will quantum advantage be demonstrated for practical quantum chemistry problems before 2030?
25% chance