By the beginning of 2035, will physicists and philosophers mostly agree on the correct interpretation of quantum mechanics?
Plus
36
Ṁ22142035
11%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Or whatever theory has replaced it at the time.
"Mostly agree" here will mean upwards of 95% agreement in polls.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000
and3.00
Sort by:
I see a problem with the agreement of philosophers. Since philosophy has become distinct from physics, it tends to attract those who still think that this is a matter of debate. In particular, what if philosophers from different countries disagree by that date?
It might be useful to have a separate market whose resolution is bound only to the opinions of physicists.
Related questions
Related questions
Will a theory of everything (a theory that unites relativity and quantum mechanics) be found in physics by 2040?
27% chance
Will there be a major paradigm shift in physics, like Newtonian to Modern Physics, by the end of 2040?
29% chance
Will a theory of everything (a theory that unites relativity and quantum mechanics) be found in physics by 2040?
52% chance
Will quantum mechanical properties prove explanatory for another biological process by the end of 2024?
36% chance
Which interpretation of Quantum Mechanics is closest to the truth?
Will we know if gravity is fundamentally quantum by the end of 2030?
19% chance
Will I find an extension of Pearl's causality compatible with quantum mechanics by the end of 2024?
74% chance
Will future language models converge on "what Einstein would have thought of Many-Worlds?" before 2036?
46% chance
Will the scientific community accept aspects of quantum consciousness by 2030? 🧠🔬⚛️🌀
19% chance
Will relational quantum mechanics become the consensus view by the end of 2040?
11% chance