By the beginning of 2035, will physicists and philosophers mostly agree on the correct interpretation of quantum mechanics?
12%
chance

Or whatever theory has replaced it at the time.

"Mostly agree" here will mean upwards of 95% agreement in polls.

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Elspeth avatar
Elspethis predicting YES at 9%

I see a problem with the agreement of philosophers. Since philosophy has become distinct from physics, it tends to attract those who still think that this is a matter of debate. In particular, what if philosophers from different countries disagree by that date?

It might be useful to have a separate market whose resolution is bound only to the opinions of physicists.

ManifoldDream avatar
Manifold in the WildBot

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