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Israeli-US Strikes on Iran: Prop Bets [Add Answers!]
48
Ṁ225Ṁ4.1k
Apr 30
78%
50+ civilians killed in neutral countries
99%
10+ US military deaths
64%
IRGC military leaders take control or defacto control
27%
Iran successfully strikes any US military ships
1%
Ceasefire by end of March
74%
A country besides the US, Israel, or Iran engages in an offensive action in the war
20%
Iranian government collapses
99%
500+ Iranian civilians killed

I will attempt to resolve these based on trusted news sources; due to the nature of reporting some of these may take time to resolve.

I will not trade on this market.

For the purposes of this market "Iran" does not include Iranian proxies such as the Houthis. Be specific!

Please add answers! I reserve the right to N/A any answers added to this market.

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The replacement is Vice Chief General Christopher LaNeve. He was Hegseth’s senior military aide before this appointment. The man who carried the Secretary’s briefcase now commands the Army the Secretary is reshaping. The chain of command did not break. It shortened. The distance between a television studio and a combat order just collapsed to zero intermediaries who were not personally selected by the man giving the order.

No reason was given. That is the tell. When someone is removed without explanation during a crisis, the explanation is the crisis itself. George either objected to something or was about to. The ground option. The power plant strikes. The Kharg raid. The escalation that turned a highway bridge in Karaj into rubble on the same day he was told to leave. Something in the next two weeks requires a chief who will not push back, and the Pentagon solved that problem by installing one trained as Hegseth’s aide.

https://x.com/shanaka86/status/2039864630701662461?s=20

bought Ṁ111 NO

@Qoiuoiuoiu "Ceasefire by end of March" resolves NO

bought Ṁ140 YES

https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-889231

UAE strikes Iranian desalination facility as first offensive move in Israel-Iran war

@VonGadke I see conflicting reports about whether this happened or not. I'll give it some time to allow the dust to settle.

Houtis and Hezbollah are not "countries", right...

@ChrisMillsc5f7 That's correct.

bought Ṁ200 YES

@Qoiuoiuoiu then unclear why its at 99%. UK involvement is defensive. Who else?

@ChrisMillsc5f7 Yeah, I don't understand it either. But I don't trade on my own markets.