Which countries will the USA bomb through 2028?

Basic

Ṁ1109

2028

79%

Syria

47%

Iran

41%

Afghanistan

34%

Pakistan

23%

Jordan

16%

Russia

15%

Egypt

15%

China

14%

North Korea

13%

Israel

13%

Cuba

11%

Mexico

Resolved

YES

Yemen

Resolved

YES

Iraq

bomb a country = missile, rocket, bomb, drone or similar attack on the territory of the country of at least ten missiles/rockets/bombs/drones in a continuous 12-month period

(must be on or after market creation date)

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#🇺🇸 US Politics

#️ Wars

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3 Comments

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Iraq

@skibidist https://twitter.com/jhaboush/status/1818409801358950718

I find the 'purely defensive action on the territory of an invaded country' to be confusing. It makes me pause on predicting this market. Would the recent bombing you Yemen by the US count a defensive if this market had been created before it happened? what about the recent bombing in Iraq?

@FakeMoney I removed that line. Neither case you mention would have fallen under the exception. I agree it was confusing and the market is better without it.

(If an existing bettor thinks they lost money due to the change, I’m happy to compensate)

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