EU sheeple need government app to access Facebook or X by EOY2026?
11
100Ṁ186
2026
22%
chance

must be generally required in at least 1 country

  • Update 2025-06-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Creator clarifies that 'needing a government app to access Facebook or X' includes scenarios where:

    • Users are required to identify themselves to Facebook or X (e.g., to open an account or access services).

    • A government digital identity app is the standard method for this identification.

  • Update 2025-06-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market may resolve to a PROB (percentage). This resolution will be based on the actual percentage of verifications (for Facebook or X access) that are, in practice, conducted using a government app. This percentage will be rounded to the nearest whole percent and applies if such a verification system is implemented in at least one EU country.

  • Update 2025-06-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator states that the AI-generated 'clarifications' (summaries of creator comments) from 2025-06-05 (PST) are 'crap' and should be disregarded. These AI-generated summaries previously suggested that:

    • 'Needing a government app to access Facebook or X' could include scenarios where users identify themselves to the platforms, with a government digital identity app as the standard method.

    • The market might resolve to a PROB (percentage) based on the actual percentage of verifications conducted using a government app.

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The AI "clarifications" are crap

What does "government app" mean? The government releases the actual client to access FB? Or would something like "you need to identify yourself towards FB to able to open an account and a government digital identity app is the standard way to do this" count?

@rayman2000 It's about the latter

@skibidist If there is an alternative way without using such an app (e.g. going to a physical place with your old-fashioned identity card), does this still resolve yes?

@rayman2000 It will resolve to PROB equal to the % of verifications that are in practice done using an app, rounded to the nearest percentage point.

@skibidist Not sure how well that measures if people "need" the app. But seems well-enough-defined to me to leave it at that 😃

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