Which countries will ban social media for teens by EOY 2026?
18
1.2kṀ1870
2026
47%
Malaysia
45%
France
31%
Indonesia
31%
Denmark
30%
Norway
23%
New Zealand
23%
Japan
22%
Australia will ease the ban or introduce exclusions that effectively remove it for most
22%
United Kingdom
11%
Canada
9%
United States

Resolves YES iff a social media ban is introduced for at least some teenagers (anyone, but not necessarily everyone, ages 13-19) in the relevant country by December 31st, 2026. The ban must encompass at least two social media sites. The ban must become law by EOY 2026 (not just announced). For this market, partial restrictions (e.g. limits on smartphone screen time or curfews) do not suffice.

I am far from an expert in the current laws and restrictions in each of these countries, so there may be some edge cases. If there is a dispute, I will attempt to rule in the spirit of the question - whether there are new laws that a reasonable person would describe as a social media ban.

Add answers!

  • Update 2025-12-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The ban must be nationwide to count. Subnational bans (e.g., a ban in only one state or province) will not be sufficient for resolution.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:

Does the ban have to be nationwide or would a subnational ban be sufficient?

bought Ṁ10 YES

@a_l_e_x Hm, I think it needs to be nationwide. E.g. if only Montana bans social media, that would not count for the US

@brod thanks!

© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy