Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if at least one country (other than Australia) passes legislation establishing a minimum age restriction on social media by December 31, 2026. The restriction must be formally enacted into law, not merely proposed or announced. Denmark announced an agreement to ban access to social media for anyone under 15 in November 2025, and France's minister of digital affairs stated her department wants to introduce a bill to restrict social media for those under 15 in the first months of 2026. Resolution will be based on official government sources confirming passage of legislation. The market resolves NO if no additional countries pass such legislation by the deadline.

Background

Australia's federal parliament passed the Online Safety Amendment in November 2024, which requires social media companies to prohibit minors under 16 from owning accounts, with the ban now in place as of December 2025. This precedent has prompted global momentum toward similar restrictions. Brazil passed a law in September 2025 requiring age verification and parental consent for users under 16, with the law expected to take effect in March 2026. Norway announced in late 2024 it was setting a minimum age of 15 for social media. Similar proposals are under consideration in Ireland, New Zealand, Singapore and Spain.

Considerations

Several countries have announced intentions but not yet passed legislation. Denmark's minister for digital affairs stated that lawmakers will likely take months to pass relevant legislation for a ban. Italy's parliament introduced a bill that could impose social media restrictions on children younger than 15, which is being studied by the Italian Senate. The distinction between announcement and formal passage is critical for resolution—proposed bills and government statements do not count unless they become law.