Subjective, so I won't bet.
Resolves YES is the democratic nominee is a non-conventional politician who is widely compared to Trump, breaks with multiple establishment norms, has a platform very different to how the Dems look like in 2024.
1,000
3.00Would a centrist billionaire who is a Democrat count?
Think Mark Cuban, Mike Bloomberg, maybe even Stephen A Smith. All 3 are mostly non-politicians and could motivate a coalition of business minded people like Trump did.
But outside of that, they could easily be branded as a standard Democrat if they win the nomination and the 2028 election could be quite similar to 2024 (or somewhat revert to 2012/Midterms if Trumpism is unique to when Trump is at the top of the ticket)
I feel like with the super delegates, a Democratic "Trump" is quite unlikely and they'd have to fall in line.
Part of what made Trump unique was that he was divisive and despised/attacked by his rivals (Rubio, Jeb, Cruz, Graham, Kasich, Vance etc.) whereas Democrats are more unified/big tent. Mostly talking about rhetoric, Republicans are "meaner" and Democrats are "nicer"
Only Sanders could be considered "Radical" (mostly in 2016 rather than 2020) but now the leftists are a big part of the coalition that I wouldn't see AOC '28 as radical enough to warrant Trump comparisons.
Jon Stewart would probably qualify as yes since he's been critical of Biden and is more of an outsider.
Is any Democrat willing to say Biden or Harris was a terrible candidate?
The closest to that was Sanders statement ripping Dems as not for the working class.
@ChinmayTheMathGuy Mark Cuban is among the possible candidates in my view (though still highly unlikely in absolute terms). He would, however, have to come up with a norm-breaking platform and reorganize the Democratic party around it, like Trump did with Republicans. Not anywhere close if he just gets nominated by the establishment.
"Build a wall, and make Mexico pay for it" was Trump's opening line. It was a wildly impractical plan that offended or alienated most moderates, but it served as red meat for the base. Trump had to radically scale down his plan (less than 50 miles of new wall was built) but he continued to stand by his plan and claim success in it.
Here are some proposals I think would qualify as a left-wing "Build the wall and make Mexico pay for it"
Divvy up 40 acre parcels of federal lands and give them to each descendent of slavery, along with a mule provided by the National Park Service.
Door-to-door gun confiscation (ETA: all guns, not just AR-15s)
100% tax on personal assets over $1 billion.
Recognize the Palestinian Authority as the only legitimate government from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean Sea. Sever diplomatic ties with Israel, it's not a real country anymore.
All of these plans are wildly partisan and impractical on their face, but could be watered down into a feasible motte. The 40 acres is cash-equivalent. The gun confiscation is voluntary. The tax has a loophole. Israel gets the Taiwan treatment.
One more thing I would add: it's normal for candidates to appease the base during the primaries, and then shift to the center in the generals. But Trump has never walked his "build the wall" promise. He continued to, and still does, campaign on it. This is in sharp relief to Kamala Harris supporting mandatory AR-15 buybacks in 2019, but then never mentioning this in 2024 (and even bragging about her gun ownership.)
Would John Fetterman count? He's the only person I can think of who could plausibly win the nomination and be called a Democratic Trump.
@EricNeyman He is a great, beautiful person, but yeah, definitely not a Trump at the moment. He could switch gears and become the Trump of the Dems, but would have to do far, far more than wearing unusual clothes.
@DanW Yeah, I think fundamentally, this is the reason why "Trump of the Dems" is impossible. Ever since Trump came onto the scene, the entire Democratic base has been composed of people to whom a Trump-like figure is extremely unpalatable, while the Republican Party has, of course, become the party of people who find that kind of person appealing.
@Yann I think it's a borderline case. It depends on how he would have campaigned. If 'closer to the centre' (even by Democratic standards), then definitely not. RFK is the only example I am aware of that would have counted. However, I am not very familiar with unsuccessful Dem contenders.
@skibidist What if someone with establishment appeal like Pritzker runs but acts like a left wing Ron DeSantis (who has been called “Trump without the baggage”) .
@Vortex Pritzker would already be unconventional given how short he is. Other than that, it would depend on how unorthodox his campaign was.
DeSantis-level should be enough. Of course he would need to be as far from regular Dems as DeSantis is from, say, Romney, not as far from Dems as DeSantis is from Trump.
In any case, I will require multiple serious sources comparing the candidate to Trump.
@TheAllMemeingEye I decided to look for an instance where he has repeated something that is provably false despite the error having been pointed out. Immediately found that he has continuously lied about healthcare spending and insurance, and even CNN (!) wrote about it.
Bernie Sanders has made the same false claim about health spending for 10 years
Sanders has been making a version of this health insurance claim for a long time. It was one of his talking points during his unsuccessful run for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination.
At three presidential debates in 2019, Sanders said 87 million Americans have no health insurance or are underinsured. But, as we wrote then, the 87 million in the Commonwealth Fund report included 19.3 million who were insured but had been uninsured at some point in the prior year, according to the report
Is this worse or better than Trump's lies? Arguably worse given how deadly communism, which he pushes for, is.
I think we've lost sight of how much establishment the Republican establishment hated Donald Trump in 2016. Bush, Bush and Romney refused to endorse him, and while McCain had a whole feud.
If Bernie gets the nomination, he'll have the Democratic establishment firmly behind him. There will be no #neverBernie's.
Actual candidates for a "Trump of the Dems"
Hasan Piker
Al Sharpton
Charlie Sheen
Kanye West
Adolph Reed Jr.
@TheAllMemeingEye yeah those would qualify too. Main thing is: can you see Obama declining to endorse this guy, the way W declined to endorse Trump?
@Yann Well, whether you like it or not, you are living in Trump world now.
Note though that I have scarcely ever done worse than this as far as resolving markets is concerned.
