Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if 15 or more US citizens die in Mexico within the next few weeks (approximately 21 days from February 23, 2026). Deaths include all causes: accidents, homicides, natural causes, and other non-natural causes. Resolution will be based on official reports from the U.S. State Department, which tracks and reports deaths of US citizens abroad. The U.S. Embassy in Mexico maintains records of all reported deaths and issues Consular Reports of Death of U.S. Citizens Abroad (CRODA), which serve as the authoritative source for verification.

Background

On February 22, 2026, Nemesio Rubén Oseguera Cervantes, known as "El Mencho," the leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel, was killed in a Mexican military operation. A shelter-in-place warning was issued for U.S. citizens in the states of Jalisco, Tamaulipas, Michoacan, Guerrero, and Nuevo Leon. The killing sparked violence, with cars burned by cartel members blocking roads in 20 Mexican states.

In 2021 and 2022, 393 U.S. citizen deaths of non-natural causes occurred in Mexico. Nearly 200 U.S. citizens die in Mexico on average every year, a large percentage of which are ruled homicide.

Considerations

The timeframe of "a few weeks" is relatively short. Reaching 15 deaths would require a significant spike above baseline mortality rates. Eyewitness accounts from the current unrest indicate streets were abandoned with no apparent attempt to harm tourists. Most US citizen deaths in Mexico historically result from accidents and natural causes rather than cartel violence, though the current security situation creates elevated risk in affected regions.

This description was generated by AI.

Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if 15 or more US citizens die in Mexico within 21 days from February 23, 2026. Deaths include all causes: accidents, homicides, natural causes, and other non-natural causes. Resolution will be based on official reports from the U.S. Department of State, which must collect and post details about each United States citizen who dies in a foreign country from a non-natural cause. A Consular Report of Death of a U.S. Citizen Abroad (CRDA) is an official document issued by a U.S. Embassy or U.S. Consulate when a U.S. citizen dies outside of the United States and provides details about the circumstances of the death. Check the State Department's death statistics database at https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/international-travel/while-abroad/death-abroad1/death-statistics.html for verification.

Background

Mexican special forces killed Nemesio Rubén Oseguera Cervantes — the cartel boss known as "El Mencho" — on Saturday in a firefight in Tapalpa, Jalisco. El Mencho ran the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), which the FBI considers Mexico's most powerful drug trafficking organization. His followers retaliated with violence across 20 states. Schools have been shut in several Mexican states, and local and foreign governments alike warned their citizens to stay indoors, as widespread violence erupted following the army's killing of the powerful leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel.

Nearly 200 U.S. citizens die in Mexico on average every year, a large percentage of which are ruled homicide. Data suggest an average number of U.S. deaths in Mexico of about 194 annually, of which there is an average of 60 homicides a year.

Considerations

Reaching 15 deaths in 21 days would require a significant spike above baseline mortality rates. No obvious successor to El Mencho has emerged, raising the prospect of a bloody internal power struggle inside the CJNG that could produce even greater instability across Mexico in the weeks ahead. The cartel's leaderless state represents one of the most volatile and unpredictable moments in Mexico's recent security history. However, over 40 million U.S. citizens traveled to and from Mexico via plane in 2021-22, which means the likelihood of being a homicide victim while on a beach vacation is extremely low.

This description was generated by AI.