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MANIFOLD
Mexico gang violence gets worse by mid March?
22
Ṁ1kṀ1.6k
resolved Mar 30
Resolved
NO

Resolves to my personal judgement if any unexpected happens, but will primarily use ACLED data (https://acleddata.com/platform/explorer) to determine resolution. Will compare numbers from February 23rd against March 15th.

  • Update 2026-03-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator is waiting for ACLED to update their stats before resolving. Resolution is delayed until the data is available.

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looks like political violence is the metric to look at as it excludes demonstrations and all of the the other event types basically have no data. Violence has gone down.

@ian good to resolve?

@prismatic will check in a bit

@prismatic looks like they don't have the most up to date stats live yet

what kinds of sources will you follow?

@marvingardens I think I'll use this: https://acleddata.com/platform/explorer - I'll get the numbers for feb 23rd and then check them against march 15

Explorer
The ACLED Explorer allows you to filter and summarize data from the past year. Country profiles show data at the subnational level, as well as trends based on number of events, fatalities, and civilians exposed to violence.