I owe either thanks or blame (let's call it attribution and leave it at that) to @RobertCousineau for being my gateway into Manifold. one could easily say I already spend entirely too much time here, but that's a market for another day.
Robert wrote a submission to Manifund to launch a Seattle Manifold Meetup, and it's all happening. the inaugural Meetup will be on the 20th of December in the Seattle/east side area (location TBD - bet on attendee numbers, obviously. if you're in the Seattle area, RSVP here).
relevant:
it's winter here which is a popular time for meetups and attendance is pretty good generally speaking
the 20th is less than two weeks away and the holidays are near, so it's unclear how many people will be in town and able to join
this will be shared around a few adjacent established meetup contacts like the Seattle EA, ACX, and Rationalists groups
there is a solstice event posted amongst these same groups the following evening, on the 21st (so it would be two in person events back-to-back shared to similar folks)
Robert has already had a few people say they're keen to come whenever the meetup starts, and we've discussed in our local Discord
the intention is to make this a fortnightly meetup and to not only socialise but to share good info, particularly for those who aren't familiar with prediction markets or Manifold.
since I've become addicted to commodotising life events (and ngl - I'm a social creature so I'm happy when these moments come that terminal onlineness meets mutual grass touching) : what percentage of the attendees will be new to Manifold?
I'll count as New those who create an account at or in preparation for this Meetup.
see also:
1,000
3.00the inaugural Seattle Manifold Meetup is tonight! @RobertCousineau shared the event on Meetup (13 RSVPs), our Seattle EA Discord, and we've spread through word of mouth (thanks also @saulmunn!)
I don't have any insider info on how many people will actually show up or how many of them will be new to Manifold for resolution in either of our markets, but we all have about 7 hours left to speculate?
I can say I'll be there not only because Robert has graciously dubbed me Co-host, but also because:
it will be fun
there will be free snacks
it's a perfect opportunity to angle for more bettors in my NYC Bingo market and Robert's Consensual Waterboarding market
I'm being blackmailed for my outstanding loan debt (which I can't repay due to some really hopeful, absurd, and simply unresolved? bets)
join us if you're in the Seattle area? 🧡
[redacted - duplicate]
i've already commented twice about other stuff, but: i've organized quite a few irl forecasting things, and i'd love to support! i haven't written up a retrospective on manifest yet, but here's a retro we (optic) wrote for an undergrad forecasting tournament. i'd also be happy to chat about this! :D
@saulmunn ah thanks so much Saul - I'd be happy to connect! I won't have a moment to check out your links until tomorrow but thanks for sharing and I'm looking forward to it. really appreciate you chiming in and offering your support!
let's connect on Discord?
@shankypanky sure! i'm saultymunny on discord, i'm not fully sure how adding friends on discord works, but lmk if you need any other info!
@SirSalty is there somewhere that manifold proper can pub this? maybe a discord channel for meetups, or retweeting it, or something?
@saulmunn Hm I think #lounge Discord channel would be the best for now! And we're going to put out a post about the Manifold Community Fund around Monday, I can link to this too =)
thanks Austin! it's @RobertCousineau's Manifund application and event, I'm just the token overly-enthisiastic particpant that really wants to see it succeed. :) good call on the #lounge, I'll make sure it gets in there 🧡
Thanks for the tag @saulmunn !
See you at the next one @such - good to connect with you!
cc: @RobertCousineau