In May 2025, Pope Leo XIV succeeded Pope Francis, becoming the first American pope in history.

He has since spoken frequently about global issues, from immigration to the Israel–Palestine conflict, emphasizing compassion, fraternity, and solidarity in his apostolic exhortation Dilexi Te (October 2025), a 20,000-word document reaffirming gospel teachings on human dignity and mercy.

He's also made some pop culture headlines. In June, Pope Leo stepped out into St Peter's Square wearing a Chicago White Sox baseball cap. Yesterday, a visitor to the Vatican yelled "Go Cubs!" from the crowd as Pope Leo drove by, and he clapped back "They lost!"

Prediction markets (particularly Polymarket) have been in a news a lot in recent weeks as the ICE invested $2bln on a $9bln valuation, and Polymarket moves to expand into the US market for the first time.

As Pope Leo continues to address current geopolitical and social issues while also referencing American culture, will he mention Prediction Markets?

• This market resolves Yes if he mentions prediction markets at any point, in any context, before the end of 2026.

• This mention can be on audio, video, quoted in a written interview, or on an official social media account (such as twitter/x) in his name.

• Mentions of a prediction market platform by name will also count, as will near-matches like "predictive markets," "betting markets" (if clearly referring to prediction markets), or another unambiguous reference to modern formats of prediction markets themselves.

• I will not resolve this market Yes for a general comment about gambling, even if one could assume due to timing or circumstances that PMs are the reason it has come up.

• This must be a direct quote from Pope Leo XIV and not an interpretation of what he has said or implied.

Historical bits:

In 1591, Pope Gregory XIV in the papal bull Cogit Nos forbade betting on papal elections under penalty of excommunication. The specific ban was lifted in 1918 in a revision of canon law, and is no longer explicitly forbidden.

In 2024, Pope Francis urged governments not to be complicit in online gambling and to protect youth from addiction.