Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if Jamie Dimon makes a public statement, speech, interview, or written commentary that directly addresses prediction markets (including their regulation, growth, impact, or use) at any point during 2026. The statement must be documented in a credible news source, official JPMorgan communication, or recorded public appearance. Passing mentions or indirect references do not count—the statement must substantively discuss prediction markets as a topic.

Background

Prediction markets like Kalshi have gained prominence in financial discourse, with major events like Federal Reserve chair succession being actively traded. As CEO of America's largest bank and a prominent voice on financial regulation and market structure, Dimon's views on prediction markets could carry significant weight in policy discussions. His track record shows he regularly comments on emerging financial trends and regulatory issues affecting the banking sector.

Considerations

Dimon is known for making forward-looking statements on economic and financial topics during JPMorgan's quarterly earnings calls, investor conferences, and media interviews. However, prediction markets remain a relatively niche topic compared to his typical focus areas (macroeconomic outlook, AI, regulation, geopolitics). His commentary on prediction markets, if it occurs, would likely emerge in the context of broader discussions about financial innovation or regulatory reform rather than as a standalone topic.