Manifest 2024 will take place June 7th to June 9th in Berkeley, California. before the event, Lightcone and Manifold are hosting LessOnline and Manifest Summer Camp from May 31st to June 7th at the Lighthaven Campus.
this market is for prop bets about the events leading up to the main event of Manifest! note that all bets are about LessOnline and Summer Camp, and are not for the conference itself. to bet on the conference, see @Joshua's market:
/Joshua/what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene
add anything that you think would be:
fun to predict, might or might not happen - be creative, don't add anything that will have an obvious resolution
reasonably simple to track whether it happened or not (nothing too hard to count)
respectful of people's privacy (let people make their own "will I get laid" markets, don't make one for them)
I'm going to attend, and I'll resolve everything I can. staff or other mods are welcome to help me resolve options as well, as prop bet markets are hard for any one person to manage. if you request resolution, please try to add a comment to the option and add any context or details for why it should resolve (when relevant).
market close will be extended as necessary if the dates change for any reason.
ftr - if you're not in the relevant Discord servers, you may miss out on some free alpha
Manifold Discord
Manifest Discord
related markets:
/Joshua/which-users-will-attend-manifest-20
/Joshua/what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene
/DanMan314/who-will-be-a-special-guestspeaker
/NeilG/will-vibecamp-2024-have-more-attend
/jim/will-i-have-fun-at-manifest-2024
/jim/which-games-will-jim-play-at-manife
/TonyPepperoni/how-many-times-in-2024-will-my-girl
/Clark/will-i-be-brave-enough-to-try-to-gr
🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ9,108 | |
2 | Ṁ8,658 | |
3 | Ṁ3,748 | |
4 | Ṁ2,926 | |
5 | Ṁ2,305 |
ack yes but I left the discord - I did get this answer during manifest which can be confirmed by a few people (Genzy, Joshua, James, Stephen, et al) which is all that was necessary for the prop. in the flurry I may not have hit send on the post in the private Mod channel so I'll write it and have it dropped there, but the official answer (as far as one currently exists) was discussed and given to me. I'll resolve now.
@traders reminder we're here now:
https://manifold.markets/Joshua/what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene
@houstonEuler is there something you'd like to say about why this should resolve yes? I see you bet this up recently but for now (cc: @Thunderstar) I haven't been presented with anything that I think qualifies.
@shankypanky I can provide more examples of the projects/ideas that were developed during the hackathon
if it helps resolve this one, when i was betting it down, by my count these were the bettors who count
https://manifold.markets/EmelineFredrick
https://manifold.markets/Glitzkrieg
https://manifold.markets/NathanFelon
https://manifold.markets/JeffreyFredrick
https://manifold.markets/MattF
So 5, and there would need to be 5 more after I bet. (And these were the 5 that at least weren't clearly already routinely betting recently before this market, i didn't check carefully to ensure these 5 all had their first bet be here).
so tldr i'd expect NO unless there are 5 more people who qualify
@shankypanky since this was added to the LO + SC market—does that mean it needs to reach 100 traders tomorrow? (as you were gonna resolve tomorrow?). or is this separate from all that?
Edit: nvm saw discord msg confirming this is the case