Manifest 2024: LessOnline + Summer Camp Prop Bets [May 31-June 7]
175
60kṀ290k
resolved Jun 17
Resolved
YES
Someone from Manifold gives an official answer on when NA can be used by Mods (to be shared in the private Mod Discord channel)
Resolved
NO
A group of narcissistic, orgying tech nerds come up with a plan to solve at least one social ill https://manifold.markets/SemioticRivalry/will-narcissistic-orgying-tech-nerd
Resolved
NO
an episode or segment of a podcast (not Manifold Live) is recorded or streamed
Resolved
NO
Orgy
Resolved
NO
someone makes soup
Resolved
NO
at least 2 "Memo Sessions" [per LessOnline: this is where someone has written a short essay ahead of time, a small group of people reads it and then has a Q&A with the author about the ideas in the essay.]
Resolved
NO
There is a discussion of the Joe Carlsmith series on Otherness and Control that includes Joe Carlsmith.
Resolved
YES
Will someone explain prediction markets to Robin Hanson for at least 30 seconds without being told he invented them?
Resolved
NO
Someone with at least 5000 Substack subscribers (including free and/or paid) publishes a 2000+ word piece about the event
Resolved
NO
Someone with at least 500 Substack subscribers (including free and/or paid) publishes a piece about LessOnline or Summer Camp during the events
Resolved
NO
Someone with at least 1000 Substack subscribers (including free and/or paid) publishes a piece about LessOnline during the event
Resolved
NO
@jim hosts a viewing (available to anyone who wants to join) of his Rationalussy movie (finished or still a work in progress)
Resolved
NO
there is a surprise (previously unannounced) guest that hosts a workshop or Q&A
Resolved
NO
Someone's toddler participates in a trolley problem game
Resolved
NO
10 people join Manifold for the first time (or return after 3+ months inactive) to bet on this market [resolved to 10+ users whose first bet/first bet in more than 3 months is on this market]
Resolved
YES
a group creates an art project/installation for Manifest
Resolved
NO
5 or more people gather to make a video postcard to send to @tonypepperoni's girlfriend's family while they're on the vacation he ditched to go to Manifest
Resolved
NO
There is an earthquake 3.0 or higher (Berkeley)
Resolved
NO
someone sings a Manifold-inspired cover song at karaoke
Resolved
NO
there will be a ball pit

Manifest 2024 will take place June 7th to June 9th in Berkeley, California. before the event, Lightcone and Manifold are hosting LessOnline and Manifest Summer Camp from May 31st to June 7th at the Lighthaven Campus.

this market is for prop bets about the events leading up to the main event of Manifest! note that all bets are about LessOnline and Summer Camp, and are not for the conference itself. to bet on the conference, see @Joshua's market:


/Joshua/what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene

add anything that you think would be:

  • fun to predict, might or might not happen - be creative, don't add anything that will have an obvious resolution

  • reasonably simple to track whether it happened or not (nothing too hard to count)

  • respectful of people's privacy (let people make their own "will I get laid" markets, don't make one for them)

I'm going to attend, and I'll resolve everything I can. staff or other mods are welcome to help me resolve options as well, as prop bet markets are hard for any one person to manage. if you request resolution, please try to add a comment to the option and add any context or details for why it should resolve (when relevant).

market close will be extended as necessary if the dates change for any reason.

ftr - if you're not in the relevant Discord servers, you may miss out on some free alpha
Manifold Discord
Manifest Discord

related markets:
/Joshua/which-users-will-attend-manifest-20
/Joshua/what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene

/DanMan314/who-will-be-a-special-guestspeaker

/NeilG/will-vibecamp-2024-have-more-attend

/jim/will-i-have-fun-at-manifest-2024
/jim/which-games-will-jim-play-at-manife
/TonyPepperoni/how-many-times-in-2024-will-my-girl
/Clark/will-i-be-brave-enough-to-try-to-gr

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