Manifest 2024: LessOnline + Summer Camp Prop Bets [May 31-June 7]
Basic
175
292k
resolved Jun 17
Resolved
YES
Someone from Manifold gives an official answer on when NA can be used by Mods (to be shared in the private Mod Discord channel)
Resolved
NO
A group of narcissistic, orgying tech nerds come up with a plan to solve at least one social ill https://manifold.markets/SemioticRivalry/will-narcissistic-orgying-tech-nerd
Resolved
NO
an episode or segment of a podcast (not Manifold Live) is recorded or streamed
Resolved
NO
Orgy
Resolved
NO
someone makes soup
Resolved
NO
at least 2 "Memo Sessions" [per LessOnline: this is where someone has written a short essay ahead of time, a small group of people reads it and then has a Q&A with the author about the ideas in the essay.]
Resolved
NO
There is a discussion of the Joe Carlsmith series on Otherness and Control that includes Joe Carlsmith.
Resolved
YES
Will someone explain prediction markets to Robin Hanson for at least 30 seconds without being told he invented them?
Resolved
NO
Someone with at least 5000 Substack subscribers (including free and/or paid) publishes a 2000+ word piece about the event
Resolved
NO
Someone with at least 500 Substack subscribers (including free and/or paid) publishes a piece about LessOnline or Summer Camp during the events
Resolved
NO
Someone with at least 1000 Substack subscribers (including free and/or paid) publishes a piece about LessOnline during the event
Resolved
NO
@jim hosts a viewing (available to anyone who wants to join) of his Rationalussy movie (finished or still a work in progress)
Resolved
NO
there is a surprise (previously unannounced) guest that hosts a workshop or Q&A
Resolved
NO
Someone's toddler participates in a trolley problem game
Resolved
NO
10 people join Manifold for the first time (or return after 3+ months inactive) to bet on this market [resolved to 10+ users whose first bet/first bet in more than 3 months is on this market]
Resolved
YES
a group creates an art project/installation for Manifest
Resolved
NO
5 or more people gather to make a video postcard to send to @tonypepperoni's girlfriend's family while they're on the vacation he ditched to go to Manifest
Resolved
NO
There is an earthquake 3.0 or higher (Berkeley)
Resolved
NO
someone sings a Manifold-inspired cover song at karaoke
Resolved
NO
there will be a ball pit

Manifest 2024 will take place June 7th to June 9th in Berkeley, California. before the event, Lightcone and Manifold are hosting LessOnline and Manifest Summer Camp from May 31st to June 7th at the Lighthaven Campus.

this market is for prop bets about the events leading up to the main event of Manifest! note that all bets are about LessOnline and Summer Camp, and are not for the conference itself. to bet on the conference, see @Joshua's market:


/Joshua/what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene

add anything that you think would be:

  • fun to predict, might or might not happen - be creative, don't add anything that will have an obvious resolution

  • reasonably simple to track whether it happened or not (nothing too hard to count)

  • respectful of people's privacy (let people make their own "will I get laid" markets, don't make one for them)

I'm going to attend, and I'll resolve everything I can. staff or other mods are welcome to help me resolve options as well, as prop bet markets are hard for any one person to manage. if you request resolution, please try to add a comment to the option and add any context or details for why it should resolve (when relevant).

market close will be extended as necessary if the dates change for any reason.

ftr - if you're not in the relevant Discord servers, you may miss out on some free alpha
Manifold Discord
Manifest Discord

related markets:
/Joshua/which-users-will-attend-manifest-20
/Joshua/what-will-happen-at-manifest-2-gene

/DanMan314/who-will-be-a-special-guestspeaker

/NeilG/will-vibecamp-2024-have-more-attend

/jim/will-i-have-fun-at-manifest-2024
/jim/which-games-will-jim-play-at-manife
/TonyPepperoni/how-many-times-in-2024-will-my-girl
/Clark/will-i-be-brave-enough-to-try-to-gr

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Someone from Manifold gives an official answer on when NA can be used by Mods (to be shared in the private Mod Discord channel)

I assume this is NO? (unless such a msg was posted?)

@shankypanky did this get an answer?

ack yes but I left the discord - I did get this answer during manifest which can be confirmed by a few people (Genzy, Joshua, James, Stephen, et al) which is all that was necessary for the prop. in the flurry I may not have hit send on the post in the private Mod channel so I'll write it and have it dropped there, but the official answer (as far as one currently exists) was discussed and given to me. I'll resolve now.

@jim hosts a viewing (available to anyone who wants to join) of his Rationalussy movie (finished or still a work in progress)

Maybe he's saving it for Manifest proper. What if the Crystal Coin Flip is the final scene of the movie?

Orgy

Can't believe y'all betrayed your hard-earned reputation by failing to do this smh my head 😞

A group of narcissistic, orgying tech nerds come up with a plan to solve at least one social ill https://manifold.markets/SemioticRivalry/will-narcissistic-orgying-tech-nerd

@houstonEuler is there something you'd like to say about why this should resolve yes? I see you bet this up recently but for now (cc: @Thunderstar) I haven't been presented with anything that I think qualifies.

@shankypanky Nope, I sold out of my position a short while ago.

@shankypanky I can provide more examples of the projects/ideas that were developed during the hackathon

hmm

10 people join Manifold for the first time (or return after 3+ months inactive) to bet on this market [resolved to 10+ users whose first bet/first bet in more than 3 months is on this market]

if it helps resolve this one, when i was betting it down, by my count these were the bettors who count

https://manifold.markets/EmelineFredrick

https://manifold.markets/Glitzkrieg

https://manifold.markets/NathanFelon

https://manifold.markets/JeffreyFredrick

https://manifold.markets/MattF

So 5, and there would need to be 5 more after I bet. (And these were the 5 that at least weren't clearly already routinely betting recently before this market, i didn't check carefully to ensure these 5 all had their first bet be here).

so tldr i'd expect NO unless there are 5 more people who qualify

Anyone have a link to this?

@houstonEuler did this happen?

Aww I wish I'd been there

@Shelvacu When I got to that option I didn't even read it out, I just shouted it into the megaphone

unfortunately we're outside and there are no microphones :(

@shankypanky resolves Y

literal paperclips?

bought Ṁ50 Answer #gl3dk9o024 YES

redacted

@shankypanky or the paper currency

@traders I will be hosting a Manifold Live event with @NcyRocks at noon in Rat Park to resolve as many of these as we can before the official end of Summer Camp.

Add anything you want us to try to do!

the first ever Crystal market is live - if this market has 100+ traders by 2p on 7 June, resolves Yes

bought Ṁ50 Answer #ivp4cr5o7g NO

@shankypanky since this was added to the LO + SC market—does that mean it needs to reach 100 traders tomorrow? (as you were gonna resolve tomorrow?). or is this separate from all that?

Edit: nvm saw discord msg confirming this is the case

reiterating for anyone else who may have the same question: per the market description (and the comment below), everything here is only for Less Online and Summer Camp.

I will check at 2p on 7 June and resolve accordingly.

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