Who will be a special guest/speaker at Manifest 2024?
Basic
95
96k
resolved Jun 10
Resolved
YES
Nate Silver
Resolved
YES
Aella
Resolved
NO
Dylan Matthews
Resolved
YES
Eliezer Yudkowsky
Resolved
YES
Robin Hanson
Resolved
YES
Scott Alexander
Resolved
NO
Destiny
Resolved
NO
Kevin Roose
Resolved
YES
Richard Hanania
Resolved
NO
Helen Toner
Resolved
NO
Sam Altman
Resolved
NO
Ilya Sutskever
Resolved
NO
Andrej Karpathy
Resolved
YES
Byrne Hobart (@ByrneHobart)
Resolved
NO
Philip E. Tetlock
Resolved
NO
Vitalik Buterin
Resolved
YES
Patrick McKenzie
Resolved
YES
Dwarkesh Patel
Resolved
NO
Lex Fridman
Resolved
YES
Ben Mann (Cofounder of Anthropic)

A "special guest/speaker" at the conference must be:

  • Officially listed on the website as a speaker / special guest

  • Have actually attended Manifest 2024

If the vocab on the website doesn't use the exact word "speaker", I'll use my best discretion. I'm not going to adjudicate if they actually gave a talk or not.

That means

  • If someone famous shows up and gives a talk, but isn't listed on the website, they will resolve NO.

  • If someone famous is listed on the website, but doesn't show up, they will also resolve NO.

  • If someone famous is listed on the website, shows up, and doesn't give an official "talk", they still resolve YES

Feel free to add your own answers. Duplicates will be N/Aed. I'll also N/A answers that are clearly jokes ("Kim Jong Un").

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Can anyone confirm they saw Ben Mann?

@traders i will be resolving all of the answers trading <5% to NO unless someone offers me evidence they attended and are on the website before market close.

bought Ṁ1,500 Answer #krm88cheko YES

@DanMan314 i asked on discord and got confirmation from people who attended his futuresearch talk

Dwarkesh Patel
bought Ṁ2,000 Dwarkesh Patel YES

@DanMan314 speaking now. Resolves YES

opened a Ṁ3,100 Answer #ts5l4l8y0h YES at 99.0% order

Confirmed was playing at the satellite poker game earlier

Patrick McKenzie
bought Ṁ3,201 Patrick McKenzie YES

@DanMan314 resolves YES. In the attendance market, he self certified that he was attending. And he’s on the website

The Manifold Team decided to have a little fun for Less Online / Manifest so...

bought Ṁ45 Patrick McKenzie YES

They put some names up on the site!

https://www.manifest.is/#speakers