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According to credible polls after the debate - if 538 commissions a poll, this market will resolve to the result. If no 538 poll runs, I will resolve this market to an equally credible source.
🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ4,739 | |
2 | Ṁ762 | |
3 | Ṁ555 | |
4 | Ṁ374 | |
5 | Ṁ317 |
NewsWire tweeted:
and Trump has stated he would debate the Dem nom but it should be on Fox News because outlets such as ABC are "biased":
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/112826639924748087
@NathanpmYoung ‘Americans by 58-36% say Harris won the debate – a reversal from the Biden-Trump match in June, which Trump was seen as winning by 66-28%.’
This market could do with an upgrade @ManifoldPolitics
It's being cited e.g.
![](https://firebasestorage.googleapis.com/v0/b/mantic-markets.appspot.com/o/user-images%2Fdefault%2Fwnc845yEgW.png?alt=media&token=6d8c5377-460e-44d1-af53-2e91af3a9484)
But tiny bets swing the % a lot.
Selling at slight profit here in order to invest in https://manifold.markets/jacksonpolack/if-kamala-harris-debates-donald-tru which will N/A if the debate doesn't happen.
I've answered this at length in the VP debate market - you can see the comments here:
/shankypanky/if-kamala-harris-and-jd-vance-debat
It was a deliberate choice to add a third option to avoid NA here. I understand there are people who don't like this format/framing and would rather not bet - and you're right that there are other markets (or opportunities for markets) on the topic! Here's a binary from @jacksonpolack that you may prefer:
/jacksonpolack/if-kamala-harris-debates-donald-tru
NewsWire tweeted:
and Trump has stated he would debate the Dem nom but it should be on Fox News because outlets such as ABC are "biased":
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/112826639924748087