Who will win the first Harris vs Trump debate?
️ Politics🇺🇸 US Politics🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential ElectionTrumpJoe Biden
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Nov 2
Kamala Harris68%

Extremely vibes based market warning!

The debate must be a 1v1 debate. A debate with Kennedy will not count.

If there is no debate before market close, resolves N/A

If Harris is not the nominee, and the replacement Democratic nominee does not debate, resolves N/A, otherwise it the replacement Democrat will replace Harris in this market

Resolves according to a panel of me, @jim and @strutheo

The judges will not bet in this market.

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A more objective version based on how manifold's market reacts.

What happens if the only debate(s) between Trump and Harris also feature Kennedy?

Then only Trump and Harris's performance will be evaluated.

Even if Harris does better she could drop on the polls. This is because Trump’s favorabilities are mostly set in stone, while Harris’s is more elastic and voters might not like her unscripted.

bought Ṁ50 Kamala Harris

In 2016 we only saw her debating with multiple candidates simultaneously... maybe she will do better one on one (and now that she is more seasoned). Not really counting her debate with Pence: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t_G0ia3JOVs (too low stakes)

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