I'll compare the probability of "Kamala Harris" in this market right before and right after the debate. If it increases I'll resolve yes.
Technicalities:
If it stays at the same number, I'll use the manifold API to get the exact numbers
If it still stays the same I'll resolve NO
If there is no debate I'll resolve NA
If it doesn't end up being a debate between Harris and Trump, the market will be about whoever the nominees are
Mini version open during the debate:
i have a 1/1 track record of sensing of how debates might turn out and I think Manifold is overrating Harris severely for the debate. There is zero evidence to suggest she's a good debater, and great evidence that she's terrible on her feet, and says nonsensical shit all the time. Trump is nothing special, but he will absolutely sense blood and try to knock her out in this debate, and there is a good chance it goes quite badly for Harris.
She did well in the 2020 VP debate against Pence. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/harris-pence-vp-debate-poll/ https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/07/politics/mike-pence-kamala-harris-vice-presidential-debate-poll/index.html
You know what, this actually strikes me as plausible: because she has not done presidential debates before, there is more variance in the expectation of her debate performance, more to lose than Trump if she performs poorly (loss aversion), but less to gain if she (with higher likelihood) performs at or above expectation. The asymmetry with respect to Trump can be rationalized as in "traders don't as care much about his performance because he's a known quantity", it's just mirror image of the Kamala trade.