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Exact market probability from API: 51.0400917209865%

I hope she's been grilling and grinding every day to prepare for this. You know people are going to vote based on the dumbest superficial shit from this debate.

N̶o̶t̶h̶i̶n̶g̶ e̶v̶e̶r̶ h̶a̶p̶p̶e̶n̶s̶. It's already priced in.

i have a 1/1 track record of sensing of how debates might turn out and I think Manifold is overrating Harris severely for the debate. There is zero evidence to suggest she's a good debater, and great evidence that she's terrible on her feet, and says nonsensical shit all the time. Trump is nothing special, but he will absolutely sense blood and try to knock her out in this debate, and there is a good chance it goes quite badly for Harris.

Please fill my yes shares.

She did well in the 2020 VP debate against Pence. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/harris-pence-vp-debate-poll/ https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/07/politics/mike-pence-kamala-harris-vice-presidential-debate-poll/index.html

@PlainBG Are you sure?

Context for Manifold's judgement

Efficient Market Hypothesis holds that this cannot be too different than 50%. Given Manifold's stated calibration record, it is more true than not.

Good point but not necessarily. Maybe there's a 75% chance Kalama goes up by 1% but a 25% chance she goes down by 3%.

Seems unlikely to have that much asymmetry priced in. More realistic is the possibility of "relief" trade, with Kamala being underpriced slightly because she hasn't debated well in the past and then exceeding the expectation with >50% probability.

You know what, this actually strikes me as plausible: because she has not done presidential debates before, there is more variance in the expectation of her debate performance, more to lose than Trump if she performs poorly (loss aversion), but less to gain if she (with higher likelihood) performs at or above expectation. The asymmetry with respect to Trump can be rationalized as in "traders don't as care much about his performance because he's a known quantity", it's just mirror image of the Kamala trade.