Which prediction/forecasting site do you use the most besides Manifold (if you use one)?
My goal for this poll is to get a clearer picture of the overlap between users of various sites (both forecasting and betting markets).
By “use,” I mean total activity including browsing, betting, market creation etc.
@saulmunn has a great website mapping out the current landscape of prediction markets if you’re curious about this stuff
nice, i like this!
i think it might be helpful to disambiguate "use" — some possible meanings of "use":
check (e.g. to check the news)
forecast "seriously" (e.g. superforecasters predicting nuclear catastrophe
forecast "playfull" (e.g. betting purely for fun, to win leagues, to gamble, etc)
also, thanks for tagging my prediction market map! :D
@saulmunn also might be helpful to disambiguate "the most" — some possible meanings of "most":
the most time spent on the app/website
the most effort spent on the app/website
the most likely that i'd recommend
most frequently that i check it
etc
these have minor differences, but sometimes might be useful. i'm less confident about the usefulness of this disambiguation than i am about disambiguating "use."
@saulmunn might also be cool to get a sense of extent — e.g. if my splitup is .2/.2/.2/.4 (polymarket/metaculus/predictit/kalshi), that's very different from .8/.05/.05/.1.
@TimothyJohnson5c16 I didn’t enable adding options :( my bad. IMO if you don’t use any other site I would just not vote in the poll