YES if the coupists in 4 countries are able to take and maintain control of the government for at least seven days or are able to achieve a definitive majority of their goals.
Successful coups so far:
Niger - 07-26-2023
Ongoing coup attempts:
Gabon - since 08-20-2023
Failed coup attempts:
Brazil
Moldova
Sudan (now a civil war)
Kyrgyzstan (allegedly)
Sierra Leon
Likley coup candidates?
Let me hear your best guesses!
1,000
3.00Taking the most recent 32 months, there has been a coup attempt about every 0.84 months (27 total - some of these are more alleged coup than coup, though) and a successful coup every 0.36 (10 total, Gabon included) months. If those trends hold we are due for 3.36 more coup attempts this year, 1.24 of which, again if trends hold, will be successful.
My main question right now is: Are there enough successful-coup-susceptible countries (weak leaders, upcoming elections or big events, other power imbalances, social movements, etc.) left?