Will the Democrats win the 2024 US Presidential election? | Manifold Markets

closes Dec 12, 2024

Presidential Politics

2024 US Presidential Election

Will the Democrats win the 2024 US Presidential election?

53%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Shockingly I didn't see a market for this already

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I assume this means “who will become president”? Or is it based on the election specifically and (unfortunately) up to interpretation

For what it’s worth:

samis predicting YES at 51%

@JoshuaB Lol ty

@JoshuaB That market resolves on news consensus, not who is inaugurated

Fion sold Ṁ4 NO from 52% to 53%

Joshua sold Ṁ12 NO from 51% to 52%

Joshua bought Ṁ20 NO from 53% to 51%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ12/Ṁ12 NO at 53%

Kendall Davis bought Ṁ50 YES from 50% to 54%

Joshua bought Ṁ50 NO from 55% to 50%

Joshua bought Ṁ20 NO from 57% to 55%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ30/Ṁ32 NO at 57% (cancelled)

Passels bought Ṁ100 YES from 52% to 60%

HIPSTERPOTAMUS bought Ṁ20 YES from 50% to 52%

cos filled limit order Ṁ1/Ṁ1 NO at 59%

cos created limit order for Ṁ1 YES at 32%

cos created limit order for Ṁ1 YES at 41%

cos created limit order for Ṁ1 NO at 67%

Super Tax Genius bought Ṁ10 NO from 51% to 50%

Joshua sold Ṁ12 NO from 50% to 51%

Nico D bought Ṁ20 NO from 52% to 50%

Joseph Noonan created limit order for Ṁ10 YES at 40%

Joshua sold Ṁ9 NO from 51% to 52%

Fion bought Ṁ17 NO from 53% to 51%

Fion bought Ṁ10 NO from 54% to 53%

Ravi Patel bought Ṁ10 YES from 53% to 54%

Brian Preskitt bought Ṁ25 NO from 57% to 53%

mr st33l bought Ṁ10 YES from 55% to 57%

Serhat bought Ṁ25 YES from 52% to 55%

Yair Neumann bought Ṁ10 YES from 51% to 52%

Joshua bought Ṁ30 NO from 56% to 51%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ28/Ṁ30 NO at 56% (cancelled)

Miles Thompson bought Ṁ100 YES from 46% to 61%

Miles Thompson bought Ṁ10 YES from 44% to 46%

Thekla bought Ṁ50 YES from 34% to 44%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ18/Ṁ19 YES at 34% (cancelled)

Alex K. Chen bought Ṁ100 NO from 41% to 30%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ29/Ṁ29 YES at 41%

Alex K. Chen bought Ṁ100 NO from 50% to 35%

sam bought Ṁ55 YES from 39% to 50%

Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot filled limit order Ṁ12/Ṁ15 YES at 39% (cancelled)

Super Tax Genius bought Ṁ100 NO from 54% to 36%

Ernie Bornheimer bought Ṁ10 YES from 52% to 54%

Joshua bought Ṁ10 NO from 54% to 52%

Hfdidiurht Idifhthdjdi bought Ṁ10 YES from 52% to 54%

Joshua bought Ṁ20 NO from 57% to 52%

Adele Lopez bought Ṁ25 YES from 51% to 57%

Joshua bought Ṁ5 NO from 53% to 51%

Joshua bought Ṁ10 NO from 56% to 53%

wustep bought Ṁ10 YES from 53% to 56%

Fion bought Ṁ10 NO from 58% to 53%

Rahul Sridhar bought Ṁ10 YES from 54% to 58%

Josiah Evans bought Ṁ10 YES from 48% to 54%

Enopoletus Harding bought Ṁ10 NO from 57% to 48%

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