Basic
172
67k
Nov 6
58%
Donald Trump
25%
Joe Biden
11%
Kamala Harris
4%
The Skeward
Close date updated to 2024-11-06 9:00 am
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My model is that it should be ~50% Biden vs. GOP nominee (this is by far how it’s most likely to look after primaries), but because Trump and DeSantis believers keep trying to outbid each other, Joe is consistently underpriced. Hashtag: not financial advice, hashtag: self-serving observation.

Thanks, @Gabrielle, now I can sell some risk off /jk

@yaboi69 I think it's still underpriced at 50% but I'm limiting my exposure. 😃

This appears to be Andrew Yang's new bright idea: https://twitter.com/AndrewYang/status/1534238135286173697
I have DeSantis as the favorite if we get the usual suspects running for President in 2024. On the other hand, if somebody unexpected were to run ...
I have DeSantis as the favorite if we get the usual suspects running for President in 2024. On the other hand, if somebody unexpected were to run ...
#YangGang
"This is silly and you know this and make this clear by putting only 1%, not even full loan amount." No. These cheap speculative trades are just a way to quickly double my money (which I just did). I don't think longterm. "Also, are you aware that "Z" in your avatar is becoming symbol of Russian aggression on Ukraine." Yes; that's why I have it.
related market: https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-donald-trump-win-the-2024-us-p "Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?" @EnopoletusHarding This is silly and you know this and make this clear by putting only 1%, not even full loan amount. Also, are you aware that "Z" in your avatar is becoming symbol of Russian aggression on Ukraine.
related market: https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-joe-biden-win-the-2024-us-pres "Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?" - now at 31%
technically someone else named "Volodymyr Zelenskyy" may win
It'll be Trump, as surely as day follows night. I take no pleasure in reporting this.
This is my joke prediction but also attempt to "predict the unpredictable". According to associates Megan Merkel does have political ambitions, she is also a us citizen and over 35. So far a far more realistic outcome then Zelensky becoming POTUS https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.vanityfair.com/style/2020/09/meghan-markle-running-for-president/amp
(this is a joke, he can't actually run for US president because he is not a natural-born US citizen)
Zelenskyy has 60% approval among Americans. Biden is 43%. Trump is 39%. The numbers speak for themselves.
Biden is far too low for an incumbent president