US Presidency 2024
US Politics2024 US Presidential ElectionPoliticsTrumpUnsubsidized
Basic
180
Ṁ76k
Nov 6
57%
Donald Trump
43%
Kamala Harris
Close date updated to 2024-11-06 9:00 am
Get Ṁ600 play money

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sold Ṁ27 Donald Trump YES

Would love an exit order at 55% for my 4296 YES (2% cheaper Trump shares than main market and no fees!!)

opened a Ṁ1,000 Donald Trump YES at 55% order

put up 1500M worth (so ~most of it to start)

opened a Ṁ700 Donald Trump YES at 55% order

ok added the rest

I'm from the future, this happens.

https://manifold.markets/JosephNoonan/will-violent-jay-and-shaggy-2-dope

Will Violent Jay and Shaggy 2 Dope win the 2024 presidential election?
50% chance. Will the Insane Clown Posse musicians, Violent Jay and Shaggy 2 Dope, win the POTUS election? No, not as president and vice president. Will they both win the election simultaneously, becoming the first dual presidents in U.S. history?

My model is that it should be ~50% Biden vs. GOP nominee (this is by far how it’s most likely to look after primaries), but because Trump and DeSantis believers keep trying to outbid each other, Joe is consistently underpriced. Hashtag: not financial advice, hashtag: self-serving observation.

Thanks, @Gabrielle, now I can sell some risk off /jk

@yaboi69 I think it's still underpriced at 50% but I'm limiting my exposure. 😃

This appears to be Andrew Yang's new bright idea: https://twitter.com/AndrewYang/status/1534238135286173697
I have DeSantis as the favorite if we get the usual suspects running for President in 2024. On the other hand, if somebody unexpected were to run ...
I have DeSantis as the favorite if we get the usual suspects running for President in 2024. On the other hand, if somebody unexpected were to run ...
#YangGang
"This is silly and you know this and make this clear by putting only 1%, not even full loan amount." No. These cheap speculative trades are just a way to quickly double my money (which I just did). I don't think longterm. "Also, are you aware that "Z" in your avatar is becoming symbol of Russian aggression on Ukraine." Yes; that's why I have it.
related market: https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-donald-trump-win-the-2024-us-p "Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?" @EnopoletusHarding This is silly and you know this and make this clear by putting only 1%, not even full loan amount. Also, are you aware that "Z" in your avatar is becoming symbol of Russian aggression on Ukraine.
related market: https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-joe-biden-win-the-2024-us-pres "Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?" - now at 31%
technically someone else named "Volodymyr Zelenskyy" may win
It'll be Trump, as surely as day follows night. I take no pleasure in reporting this.
This is my joke prediction but also attempt to "predict the unpredictable". According to associates Megan Merkel does have political ambitions, she is also a us citizen and over 35. So far a far more realistic outcome then Zelensky becoming POTUS https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.vanityfair.com/style/2020/09/meghan-markle-running-for-president/amp
(this is a joke, he can't actually run for US president because he is not a natural-born US citizen)
Zelenskyy has 60% approval among Americans. Biden is 43%. Trump is 39%. The numbers speak for themselves.
Biden is far too low for an incumbent president

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