164
927
Nov 6
44%
Donald Trump
45%
Joe Biden
1.3%
Ron DeSantis
0.9%
Kamala Harris
0.1%
Mike Pence
4%
Nikki Haley
0.4%
Pete Buttigieg
0.1%
Michelle Obama
0%
Elizabeth Warren
0%
Mike Pompeo
0%
Tucker Carlson
0%
Kristi Noem
0%
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
0%
Meghan Markle
0%
Scott Alexander Siskind
0%
Glenn Youngkin
0%
Bernie Sanders
0.1%
Andrew Yang
0%
Josh Hawley
0%
Ben Shapiro
Close date updated to 2024-11-06 9:00 am
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bought Ṁ200 of Joe Biden

My model is that it should be ~50% Biden vs. GOP nominee (this is by far how it’s most likely to look after primaries), but because Trump and DeSantis believers keep trying to outbid each other, Joe is consistently underpriced. Hashtag: not financial advice, hashtag: self-serving observation.

Thanks, @Gabrielle, now I can sell some risk off /jk

bought Ṁ550 of Joe Biden

@yaboi69 I think it's still underpriced at 50% but I'm limiting my exposure. 😃

answered
Matthew McConaughey
bought Ṁ40
This appears to be Andrew Yang's new bright idea: https://twitter.com/AndrewYang/status/1534238135286173697
bought Ṁ10 of Steve Carell
I have DeSantis as the favorite if we get the usual suspects running for President in 2024. On the other hand, if somebody unexpected were to run ...
bought Ṁ100 of Ron DeSantis
I have DeSantis as the favorite if we get the usual suspects running for President in 2024. On the other hand, if somebody unexpected were to run ...
bought Ṁ1 of Andrew Yang
#YangGang
sold Ṁ1 of Donald Trump
"This is silly and you know this and make this clear by putting only 1%, not even full loan amount." No. These cheap speculative trades are just a way to quickly double my money (which I just did). I don't think longterm. "Also, are you aware that "Z" in your avatar is becoming symbol of Russian aggression on Ukraine." Yes; that's why I have it.
bought Ṁ1 of Donald Trump
related market: https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-donald-trump-win-the-2024-us-p "Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?" @EnopoletusHarding This is silly and you know this and make this clear by putting only 1%, not even full loan amount. Also, are you aware that "Z" in your avatar is becoming symbol of Russian aggression on Ukraine.
bought Ṁ1 of Joe Biden
related market: https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-joe-biden-win-the-2024-us-pres "Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?" - now at 31%
bought Ṁ1 of Volodymyr Zelenskyy
technically someone else named "Volodymyr Zelenskyy" may win
bought Ṁ1 of Donald Trump
It'll be Trump, as surely as day follows night. I take no pleasure in reporting this.
bought Ṁ2 of Meghan Markle
This is my joke prediction but also attempt to "predict the unpredictable". According to associates Megan Merkel does have political ambitions, she is also a us citizen and over 35. So far a far more realistic outcome then Zelensky becoming POTUS https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.vanityfair.com/style/2020/09/meghan-markle-running-for-president/amp
bought Ṁ5 of Volodymyr Zelenskyy
(this is a joke, he can't actually run for US president because he is not a natural-born US citizen)
bought Ṁ10 of Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Zelenskyy has 60% approval among Americans. Biden is 43%. Trump is 39%. The numbers speak for themselves.
bought Ṁ30 of Joe Biden
Biden is far too low for an incumbent president

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