8k
Nov 6
50%
Donald Trump
48%
Joe Biden
Close date updated to 2024-11-06 9:00 am
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bought Ṁ200 of N/A

My model is that it should be ~50% Biden vs. GOP nominee (this is by far how it’s most likely to look after primaries), but because Trump and DeSantis believers keep trying to outbid each other, Joe is consistently underpriced. Hashtag: not financial advice, hashtag: self-serving observation.

Thanks, @Gabrielle, now I can sell some risk off /jk

bought Ṁ550 of N/A

@yaboi69 I think it's still underpriced at 50% but I'm limiting my exposure. 😃

bought Ṁ40
This appears to be Andrew Yang's new bright idea: https://twitter.com/AndrewYang/status/1534238135286173697
bought Ṁ10 of N/A
I have DeSantis as the favorite if we get the usual suspects running for President in 2024. On the other hand, if somebody unexpected were to run ...
bought Ṁ100 of N/A
I have DeSantis as the favorite if we get the usual suspects running for President in 2024. On the other hand, if somebody unexpected were to run ...
bought Ṁ1 of N/A
#YangGang
sold Ṁ1 of N/A
"This is silly and you know this and make this clear by putting only 1%, not even full loan amount." No. These cheap speculative trades are just a way to quickly double my money (which I just did). I don't think longterm. "Also, are you aware that "Z" in your avatar is becoming symbol of Russian aggression on Ukraine." Yes; that's why I have it.
bought Ṁ1 of N/A
related market: https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-donald-trump-win-the-2024-us-p "Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?" @EnopoletusHarding This is silly and you know this and make this clear by putting only 1%, not even full loan amount. Also, are you aware that "Z" in your avatar is becoming symbol of Russian aggression on Ukraine.
bought Ṁ1 of N/A
related market: https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-joe-biden-win-the-2024-us-pres "Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?" - now at 31%
bought Ṁ1 of N/A
technically someone else named "Volodymyr Zelenskyy" may win
bought Ṁ1 of N/A
It'll be Trump, as surely as day follows night. I take no pleasure in reporting this.
bought Ṁ2 of N/A
This is my joke prediction but also attempt to "predict the unpredictable". According to associates Megan Merkel does have political ambitions, she is also a us citizen and over 35. So far a far more realistic outcome then Zelensky becoming POTUS https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.vanityfair.com/style/2020/09/meghan-markle-running-for-president/amp
bought Ṁ5 of N/A
(this is a joke, he can't actually run for US president because he is not a natural-born US citizen)
bought Ṁ10 of N/A
Zelenskyy has 60% approval among Americans. Biden is 43%. Trump is 39%. The numbers speak for themselves.
bought Ṁ30 of N/A
Biden is far too low for an incumbent president