If ICJ rules in favor of SA, then which nominee wins 2024 US election?
4
1kṀ3355
2035
20%
Trump

This market will not resolve any answer to YES unless the International Court of Justice (ICJ) rules decisively in favor of South Africa (SA) in its genocide case against Israel before the market expiration date, and a current (as of time of market creation) presumptive nominee for a major United States (US) political party wins the 2024 US presidential election.

Biden) The ICJ rules in favor of SA, and Biden wins in 2024

Trump) The ICJ rules in favor of SA, and Trump wins in 2024

[2024 United States presidential election](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election)

[South Africa's genocide case against Israel](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Africa%27s_genocide_case_against_Israel)

Election results will be resolved according to [Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024)

This market is logically conditional and not temporally conditional.

  • Update 2025-06-23 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The condition 'ICJ rules in favor of SA' refers specifically to the case identified by the Wikipedia URL in the market description, and not any potential future cases South Africa may bring.

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In a separate question, what if the ruling is moot? As phrased the options would be no or N/A. Which?

@JussiVilleHeiskanen that is, Trump is pressuring SA to withdraw the case. What if they do?

@JussiVilleHeiskanen realized that you resolved Biden NO, so that would imply that N/A is precluded for Trump. Or am I missing something?

@ruttar do I understand correctly that this in relation to the specific case already begun and not any future case that South Africa may bring?

@JussiVilleHeiskanen The case is identified by Wikipedia URL

bought Ṁ2,500 NO

@creator please resolve Biden to NO, since he did not win the election.

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