@strutheo runs monthly polls. Earlier examples:
https://manifold.markets/strutheo/which-will-be-the-best-meme-posted-l8ygShIuzg (January)
https://manifold.markets/strutheo/which-will-be-the-best-meme-posted-OhzSUlSALE (February)
https://manifold.markets/strutheo/which-will-be-the-best-meme-posted-shAZ9tpypg (March)
This market will include all monthly polls by @strutheo up to and including December.
Will the winning meme image be direct output from ChatGPT's image generator, or similar AI-based image generation service? The prompting can be arbitrarily specific/complex (including image inputs), but if the output image has been substantially edited or post-processed through non-AI means, that doesn't count.
In the event of uncertainty, the author of the meme(s) in question will be asked whether they used AI. (They don't have to prove AI was used, I'll take their word for it and/or use my own judgement)
Update 2025-10-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): AI-generated static HTML documents (such as Claude-generated HTML) are considered within the spirit of the market and will count as AI-generated content for resolution purposes, not just image outputs from AI image generators.
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People are also trading
One of the candidate memes this month is a claude-generated HTML document. My initial resolution criteria focused on "images", but I'd consider AI-generated static HTML (non-interactive) to be within the spirit of the market, if that meme (or similar) won a monthly poll.
@realDonaldTrump my impression was that it was a screenshot of a vibecoded app, but I don't think that fits the spirit of the resolution criteria
The December poll hasn't resolved yet but afaict none of them are AI anyway. Resolves NO.
Things got interesting in October (https://manifold.markets/strutheo/which-will-be-the-best-meme-posted-AczIQAcp8d) when a claude'd meme almost won, but ultimately did not.
@realDonaldTrump @Bayesian but why not bet YES? I'm not betting to stay neutral but it looks to me like this will resolve YES, based on https://manifold.markets/strutheo/which-will-be-the-best-meme-posted-AczIQAcp8d
One of the candidate memes this month is a claude-generated HTML document. My initial resolution criteria focused on "images", but I'd consider AI-generated static HTML (non-interactive) to be within the spirit of the market, if that meme (or similar) won a monthly poll.