Will an AI-generated #memefold meme win a monthly poll in 2025?
19
1kแน€1636
Dec 31
33%
chance

@strutheo runs monthly polls. Earlier examples:

https://manifold.markets/strutheo/which-will-be-the-best-meme-posted-l8ygShIuzg (January)

https://manifold.markets/strutheo/which-will-be-the-best-meme-posted-OhzSUlSALE (February)

https://manifold.markets/strutheo/which-will-be-the-best-meme-posted-shAZ9tpypg (March)

This market will include all monthly polls by @strutheo up to and including December.

Will the winning meme image be direct output from ChatGPT's image generator, or similar AI-based image generation service? The prompting can be arbitrarily specific/complex (including image inputs), but if the output image has been substantially edited or post-processed through non-AI means, that doesn't count.

In the event of uncertainty, the author of the meme(s) in question will be asked whether they used AI. (They don't have to prove AI was used, I'll take their word for it and/or use my own judgement)

  • Update 2025-10-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): AI-generated static HTML documents (such as Claude-generated HTML) are considered within the spirit of the market and will count as AI-generated content for resolution purposes, not just image outputs from AI image generators.

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One of the candidate memes this month is a claude-generated HTML document. My initial resolution criteria focused on "images", but I'd consider AI-generated static HTML (non-interactive) to be within the spirit of the market, if that meme (or similar) won a monthly poll.

One of the candidate memes this month is a claude-generated HTML document. My initial resolution criteria focused on "images", but I'd consider AI-generated static HTML (non-interactive) to be within the spirit of the market, if that meme (or similar) won a monthly poll.

its not far off!

opened a แน€10,000 NO at 50% order

no

If it wins, it's bc of the novelty IMO and not on its own merits

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