This market is about whether Pope Leo XIV will openly position himself against Donald Trump and/or the Trump administration in 2025, based on public statements.
Market conditions:
Timeframe
The timeframe for this market is 8 May 2025 to 31 December 2025. Earlier or later statements are not taken into account.
Resolution criteria
A YES resolution occurs if Pope Leo XIV issues any public statement that directly and clearly criticizes Donald Trump or the current US government, which includes criticism of high ranking officials like J.D. Vance.
A NO resolution occurs if no such direct criticism is issued before EOY.
Vague appeals or general critiques that do not explicitly address Donald Trump or the US government are insufficient for a YES resolution.
Subjective evaluation and trader participation
I will carry out the ruling subjectively, based on news reporting and within the framework of these market conditions.
Comments and evidence submitted by traders will be considered.
Additional Notes:
I will not trade on this market.
1,000People are also trading
I get that he’s previously RT’d stuff on Twitter but given this video is from a formal setting I wonder if it will be a better predictor of how he will speak now that he’s pope: moderate & attempts to reconcile multiple viewpoints
@elf Edit: sorry, I misread your comment initially. Very interesting clip and a good point you make. Although I believe it shows that he approaches an issue like immigration from a humanist perspective, which is nuanced, yes, but in stark contrast to the position of the Trump administration.
"John Prevost [Brother of Pope Leo] described Pope Leo as “middle of the road” and said, “I don’t think we’ll see extremes either way.” But, he said, his brother would not be afraid to use this new platform.
“I don’t think he’ll stay quiet for too long if he has something to say,” Mr. Prevost said. “I know he’s not happy with what’s going on with immigration. I know that for a fact. How far he’ll go with it is only one’s guess, but he won’t just sit back. I don’t think he’ll be the silent one.”"
@Vandell Neither Trump nor the US government were mentioned in this speech. The headline is sensational, in the usual style of TDB.
Here is a full transcript of the speech:
https://www.npr.org/2025/05/08/nx-s1-5392318/transcript-pope-leo-xiv-speech
@digory I already wrote criticism of "the current US government" counts, but to be clear, I've added to the Market Conditions that criticism of high-ranking US officials such as J.D. Vance is considered criticism of the administration as a whole. The fact that J.D. Vance is a Catholic makes such a scenario conceivable.