This market is about whether Pope Leo XIV will openly position himself against Donald Trump and/or the Trump administration in 2025, based on public statements.
Market conditions:
Timeframe
The timeframe for this market is 8 May 2025 to 31 December 2025. Earlier or later statements are not taken into account.
Resolution criteria
YES if Pope Leo XIV issues any public statement that directly and clearly criticizes Donald Trump or the current US government, which includes criticism of high ranking officials like J.D. Vance.
Direct criticism of a current US government policy or action is considered criticism of the Trump administration.
Vague appeals or general critiques that do not explicitly address Donald Trump or the US government are insufficient for a YES resolution.
NO if no such direct criticism is issued before EOY.
Subjective evaluation and trader participation
I will carry out the ruling subjectively, based on verbatim quotes reported in the news and within the framework of these market conditions.
Comments and evidence submitted by traders will be considered. Evidence should ideally consist of a verbatim quote from Pope Leo XIV with reference to the source.
Additional Notes:
I will not trade on this market.
Update 2025-11-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has indicated that the Reuters article from November 4, 2025 about Pope Leo XIV calling for "deep reflection" on migrants' treatment under Trump will NOT resolve this market to YES.
Update 2025-11-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The Reuters article from November 4, 2025 about Pope Leo XIV calling for "deep reflection" on migrants' treatment and advocating for pastoral care does NOT constitute direct criticism of the Trump administration.
Advocacy statements with implied criticism are insufficient - there must be direct criticism stating that Trump's policies or actions are harmful or wrong, not merely advocating for better treatment of a constituency.
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@JoshuaWilkes there is some room for interpretation based on Leo's reported speech in this story vs the description, but my guess is that this will resolve YES now
I don't think it counts because he didn't explicitly criticize Trump or the U.S. government, if I'm not mistaken.
And I think from his cautious choice of words, like saying "a deep reflection needs to be made" and "[people] have been deeply affected by what's going on right now", it wasn't an explicit attack on Trump.
In reference to the Broadview inmates, he said on Tuesday that the spiritual rights of detainees need to be considered.
"I would certainly invite the authorities to allow pastoral workers to attend to the needs of those people," he said.
"Many times they've been separated from their families for a good amount of time; no one knows what's happening, but their own spiritual needs should be attended to."
@JoshuaWilkes Thank you for bringing this to our attention. I view these as advocacy statements for a constituency, with implied criticism, but not direct criticism of the Trump administration. There's a meaningful difference between saying "migrants deserve better treatment" and saying "Trump's policies are harmful or wrong."
I like how this market makes me reflect upon Pope Leos communication style. Theres a thin line between his standing as a universal moral authority and being viewed as a biased political actor.
Consider how Pope Pius XII didn't directly criticize Hitler during the Holocaust. It's an extreme example for a pattern that may be viewed as a principled restraint maintaining moral authority, complicity through calculated ambiguity, or something in-between.
Very interesting subject. I wonder if there are some good books about it...
@FecalAbhuman When has a pope ever openly criticized a western leader? Probably not since the end of the Papal States.
@jgyou Thanks for sharing this. I don't believe this qualifies for a YES resolution, nor do the comments about Hegseth. I'll expand on this later and am open to hear your arguments.
@jgyou I believe this doesn’t qualify as direct criticism. For context, Pope Leo made a comment about the Chicago Archdiocese honoring Sen. Durbin, who is pro choice. Pope Leo spoke in defense of the senator saying he's not too familiar with the case, but that it's important to look at the overall work the senator has done in his 40 years of service. He then pointed out his general critique of moral double standards in the pro‑life movement. “Someone who says, ‘I’m against abortion,’ but is in favor of the death penalty is not really pro-life,” the pope continued. “Someone who says, ‘I’m against abortion but I’m in agreement with the inhuman treatment of immigrants in the United States,’ I don’t know if that’s pro-life.” If the pope "doesn't know" if agreement with the inhumane treatment of immigrants is pro-life, who does? Only god?
Pope Leo didn’t address Trump or the U.S. government directly; it came across as a side note illustrating his consistent life-ethic point. It clearly gestured at the administration’s immigration approach, but it stopped short of directly naming or denouncing it — and that restraint seems intentional. If anything, his remarks about Hegseth and the DoD/“Department of War” made on the same day show the pattern: he calls the rhetoric “worrying,” then immediately adds “Let’s hope it is only a way of speaking,” i.e., deliberately granting benefit of the doubt rather than issuing a frontal condemnation.
@redcat I see calling something inhumane and questioning if somebody who supports it can be pro-(human)life as denouncing
@FecalAbhuman Yes, I'd call it a lukewarm denouncement, but he still didn't directly address the US government.
@Chumchulum Yes, that's right. Or if he made a similar appeal directly to the US government, for example, if he had made the same quote about the pro-life movement in a conversation with the Catholic vice president.
Pope Leo Slams Trump’s Iran Strike: ‘War Does Not Solve Problems’
He's subtweeting him... getting closer
@RichardKnoche Hey, thanks for asking. If he is directly criticising the Trump administration's immigration policy or other government policies or actions, then yes. I count that as criticism of the administration and/or Trump himself.
I think this is the most likely scenario. After all, the Pope would only be interested in Trump in his function as president and exercise of power.
I am assuming this would not resolve the market to yes?
As with the last TDB article shared here, the headline appears to be sensational. They took a quote that was addressed to journalists and linked it to Trump.
For context: https://www.npr.org/2025/05/12/g-s1-65869/pope-leo-journalist-address