This market is about whether Pope Leo XIV will openly position himself against Donald Trump and/or the Trump administration in 2025, based on public statements.
Market conditions:
Timeframe
The timeframe for this market is 8 May 2025 to 31 December 2025. Earlier or later statements are not taken into account.
Resolution criteria
YES if Pope Leo XIV issues any public statement that directly and clearly criticizes Donald Trump or the current US government, which includes criticism of high ranking officials like J.D. Vance.
Direct criticism of a current US government policy or action is considered criticism of the Trump administration.
Vague appeals or general critiques that do not explicitly address Donald Trump or the US government are insufficient for a YES resolution.
NO if no such direct criticism is issued before EOY.
Subjective evaluation and trader participation
I will carry out the ruling subjectively, based on verbatim quotes reported in the news and within the framework of these market conditions.
Comments and evidence submitted by traders will be considered. Evidence should ideally consist of a verbatim quote from Pope Leo XIV with reference to the source.
Additional Notes:
I will not trade on this market.
1,000People are also trading
@FecalAbhuman When has a pope ever openly criticized a western leader? Probably not since the end of the Papal States.
@jgyou Thanks for sharing this. I don't believe this qualifies for a YES resolution, nor do the comments about Hegseth. I'll expand on this later and am open to hear your arguments.
@jgyou I believe this doesn’t qualify as direct criticism. For context, Pope Leo made a comment about the Chicago Archdiocese honoring Sen. Durbin, who is pro choice. Pope Leo spoke in defense of the senator saying he's not too familiar with the case, but that it's important to look at the overall work the senator has done in his 40 years of service. He then pointed out his general critique of moral double standards in the pro‑life movement. “Someone who says, ‘I’m against abortion,’ but is in favor of the death penalty is not really pro-life,” the pope continued. “Someone who says, ‘I’m against abortion but I’m in agreement with the inhuman treatment of immigrants in the United States,’ I don’t know if that’s pro-life.” If the pope "doesn't know" if agreement with the inhumane treatment of immigrants is pro-life, who does? Only god?
Pope Leo didn’t address Trump or the U.S. government directly; it came across as a side note illustrating his consistent life-ethic point. It clearly gestured at the administration’s immigration approach, but it stopped short of directly naming or denouncing it — and that restraint seems intentional. If anything, his remarks about Hegseth and the DoD/“Department of War” made on the same day show the pattern: he calls the rhetoric “worrying,” then immediately adds “Let’s hope it is only a way of speaking,” i.e., deliberately granting benefit of the doubt rather than issuing a frontal condemnation.
@redcat I see calling something inhumane and questioning if somebody who supports it can be pro-(human)life as denouncing
@FecalAbhuman Yes, I'd call it a lukewarm denouncement, but he still didn't directly address the US government.
@Chumchulum Yes, that's right. Or if he made a similar appeal directly to the US government, for example, if he had made the same quote about the pro-life movement in a conversation with the Catholic vice president.
Pope Leo Slams Trump’s Iran Strike: ‘War Does Not Solve Problems’
He's subtweeting him... getting closer
@RichardKnoche Hey, thanks for asking. If he is directly criticising the Trump administration's immigration policy or other government policies or actions, then yes. I count that as criticism of the administration and/or Trump himself.
I think this is the most likely scenario. After all, the Pope would only be interested in Trump in his function as president and exercise of power.
I am assuming this would not resolve the market to yes?
As with the last TDB article shared here, the headline appears to be sensational. They took a quote that was addressed to journalists and linked it to Trump.
For context: https://www.npr.org/2025/05/12/g-s1-65869/pope-leo-journalist-address
I would clarify/specify the news sources you’ll use. I mean, the trump mob’s entire game is based on defining their positions as the definition of yes, “fair and balanced”. Any person or organization that doesn’t 100% “ditto” the preening orange cult leader is branded a vicious subhuman socialist troglodyte.
Soooo…is Fox“news” on your list?
@JohnKing Thanks for your comment! I will look into every source that is shared here, but ultimately what matters is what the Pope stated verbatim. It has to directly address the Trump administration and has to be critical in nature.
I will add that traders should ideally share the original wording of the sentence or passage of the Popes statement, if they believe it justifies resolving YES, while citing a source.
I get that he’s previously RT’d stuff on Twitter but given this video is from a formal setting I wonder if it will be a better predictor of how he will speak now that he’s pope: moderate & attempts to reconcile multiple viewpoints
@elf Edit: sorry, I misread your comment initially. Very interesting clip and a good point you make. Although I believe it shows that he approaches an issue like immigration from a humanist perspective, which is nuanced, yes, but in stark contrast to the position of the Trump administration.
"John Prevost [Brother of Pope Leo] described Pope Leo as “middle of the road” and said, “I don’t think we’ll see extremes either way.” But, he said, his brother would not be afraid to use this new platform.
“I don’t think he’ll stay quiet for too long if he has something to say,” Mr. Prevost said. “I know he’s not happy with what’s going on with immigration. I know that for a fact. How far he’ll go with it is only one’s guess, but he won’t just sit back. I don’t think he’ll be the silent one.”"
@Quroe if American Catholics had to choose between the Pope and Trump, I'd expect a new kind of Protestantism.