Will anything CRAZY happen on August 4, 2026?
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Ṁ100Ṁ3.3kresolved Aug 5
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In Humanities today we read a Ray Bradbury story that featured a nuclear blast occurring on August 4, 2026. Resolution is linked to /ItsMe/will-something-crazy-happen-monthly, if the option "August" resolves to YES based on an event that happened at least partially on 08.04.2026 EST, creator judgement. If you're interested, the story is here.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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@strutheo this one always stuck with me
https://www.stcypriansprimaryacademy.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/All-Summer-in-a-Day-by-Ray-Bradbury.pdf
Probability of something CRAZY happening in August: 36% [Market-implied]
Multiply that by 1/31
Implied probability of this market: 1.1%