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MANIFOLD
If there's a new Platner scandal before the election, how bad will it be, according to a Manifold poll?
10
Ṁ100Ṁ2.2k
resolved Jul 23
Resolved
YES
As bad or worse than the Reddit Scandal
Resolved
YES
As bad or worse than the Sexts Scandal
Resolved
YES
As bad or worse than the Totenkopf (Nazi Tattoo) Scandal

The option that gets the most votes on the poll resolves YES

  • Update 2026-07-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Tied options on the poll resolve at 50% each

  • Update 2026-07-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If three options tie, each resolves at 33% each

  • Update 2026-07-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Creator is considering resolving the market as N/A due to concerns that voters may not know it's a multiple choice poll and may only vote for one option

  • Update 2026-07-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Creator is planning to resolve N/A due to mechanical flaws in the market design, unless someone disagrees within the next couple of days

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Re-resolved all answers to YES. Due to creator trading in the market, and the poll being clear (almost all voters voted for all options), YES on all answers seems like the best solution.

@Gabrielle The resolution criteria was ambiguous meaning people didn't know what they were betting on. Other Manifolders lost money as well due to your resolution. N/A is the safest and fairest way to resolve the dispute in the wake of bad resolution criteria.

@Gabrielle That's not how I interpreted this market and I have made that pretty clear in previous comments.

It's literally in the description of the market:

The option that gets the most votes on the poll resolves YES

  • Update 2026-07-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Tied options on the poll resolve at 50% each

  • Update 2026-07-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If three options tie, each resolves at 33% each

I'll bring this to the other mods and have a discussion internally.

@Gabrielle To summarize: I asked about the resolution, got clear answers by the creator, and bet based on those answers. If it does not resolve according to those answers, I would find it fair to get my mana back, either through N/A resolution or compensation of my losses.

@4fa thank you sir 🫡

My standard rant against "criteria were ambiguous so let's just N/A": /dreev/how-bad-is-it-to-resolve-a-market-a

@dreev "Exceptions: C. Self-contradictory resolution criteria. If all possible resolutions would be unfair to some subset of traders, resolving N/A may be least unfair." If you look at the comments, you can see the resolutions we discussed were either unfair towards Jack (and others) or me (and possibly others).

@4fa However, resolving according to Jack's initial interpretation and compensating me for being misled would be more responsible than just N/A-ing.

@mods Could you please review this market for a patently unfair resolution? The resolution is not consistent with the rules made by the market creator.

@AaronSimansky If I understand @Jack1 correctly, the rules themselves were not consistent. If I get advance notice to sell my shares, we can follow Jack's interpretation. Otherwise, I'm not sure there's a way that will make both of us happy. Maybe @mods need to get involved if this kind of thing happens regularly. I don't follow Eli's markets, so I have to ask others: Does this happen regularly?

@AaronSimansky Wouldn't you make a loss if this resolved according to the description? You hold YES on all three options bought at average share prices of 0.83, 0.97 and 0.73, but according to the description it would resolve to a sum of 1, so an average share price of 0.33 per option.

@4fa I think the rules (which were just in the market title given that there was no description provided until minutes before resolution) are clear that multiple options can resolve as yes if the polls show that a majority of Manifold users agree with that position. So depending on the results of the poll, I may or may not make a loss or gain. However, the market clearly contemplates a poll on each option and failing to do so is not a fair resolution of the market.

@AaronSimansky There is a poll, it just wasn't linked here, which falls more under bad design again…

"The option that gets the most votes on the poll resolves YES" was added three or four days ago. The fact that triple ties would resolve to 33% each was added 22h ago, not "minutes before resolution". Still, not great, but not what you are saying, either.

@4fa I didn’t realize that they had already been a pole. That poll is obviously not consistent with the question asked

It’s a set market! Multiple answers can resolve yes!

@Jack1 That's why I asked what happens in case of a tie, got answers, and bet accordingly.

@realTomBayes So, do I need to sell my position again or will this resolve as in the description or will it N/A?

@4fa Depends, see below comment

@realTomBayes you can’t change rules to suit yourself. You added description to help your bets.

It should resolve based on if over 50% people think it’s as bad as a previous scandal

@Jack1 People might not know that it's a multiple choice poll, and vote for only one.

Would you agree to an N/A?

@realTomBayes that hasNt happened. Every option is over 50%. Currently they are all 8 out of 11 people agree or higher. So all options can resolve yes, no concern about people only voting for one

@Jack1 you just made up the over 50% thing. you're not the market creator, you don't make the rules. while i try to resolve markets fairly, this one was mechanically flawed when i made it, so it should probably resolve N/A. if i don't get another person to disagree with me in the next couple days, that's what i'll do.

@realTomBayes you could create individual polls for each answer. Ask which is worse ‘Platners new scandal or totenkopf/reddit/sexting

@realTomBayes I disagree with this resolution which you stated would prompt for the review. Please unresolve it