Will this Iran business be a war or just a casual takeover?
1
Ṁ100Ṁ10Dec 31
55%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Creator judgement via CCR ;)
Update 2026-02-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): War resolves to YES
Casual takeover resolves to NO
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
What will happen relating to Iran before April 1, 2026?
Will the US and Iran be at war on January 1st, 2027?
18% chance
Will the US invade Iran before the end of 2026?
13% chance
Conditional on Iranian Regime Change: will it be achieved by a military coup?
36% chance
Civil War in Iran in 2026?
31% chance
Will Iran succumb to U.S. demands?
37% chance
When will the US and Iran be at war? (unlinked, permanent)
Will Iran have a civil war before the start of 2028?
29% chance