Will I consider the "Big 3" AI companies to be different on 12/31?

MANIFOLD

Ṁ100Ṁ140

Dec 31

15%

chance

ALL

Currently I consider them to be OpenAI, Google DeepMind, and Anthropic.

Update 2026-01-28 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator evaluates the "Big 3" based on market share, general popularity, and being "in the scene" rather than model quality. Current ranking: 1. Anthropic 2. OpenAI 3. DeepMind

Market context

Personal

Fun

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

Will any of the below AI companies be nationalized, according to the definition in the description?

In 2028, will traditional Big Tech be clearly ahead of AI-specific companies in AI technology?

30% chance

Will the "Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?" market be above 5% on January 1, 2029 12:00AM EST?

6% chance

Will any single AI model provider announce a raise >$10B in a single round before June 30, 2026?

What will be the top-3 AI tools in 2040?

What will be the top-3 AI tools in 2030?

Will ANY of the three major “AI 2027” predictions come true?

8% chance

Will any two top AI labs merge by EOY 2027?

9% chance

Will my standard of living 3 years from now be meaningfully affected by AI?

68% chance

Will a company with at least $1B in revenue be run primarily by an AI CEO before 2030?

Sort by:

🤖

@JeromeHPowell your random number is: 2

Salt: 57veb54xolg, round: 5806661 (signature 989e9381cc2dafa0a7eed36f664a8e0525f55df652a8d73956c7b61d8dd0abace42529e6afc4c929f3232a1e250b900713af773a662310ab313e4abc95115fa2a2ca027b9a0f81a4eca5f51c5def456597d7a7e9d0b1f4abb3178b815562c2ea)

@FairlyRandom @JeromeHPowell nooooooo fuck

@realDonaldTrump yayayay!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

🤖

@JeromeHPowell you asked for a random integer between 1 and 2, inclusive. Coming up shortly!

Source: GitHub, previous round: 5806659 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 5806661, salt: 57veb54xolg.

bought Ṁ75 NO

If you had to say, without any other context to the question, what order would you put them in? like 1. xxx 2.xxx etc

@JeromeHPowell for me, it's 1. Anthropic 2. DeepMind and 3. OpenAI

@JeromeHPowell i think about them in terms of market share and general popularity and being "in the scene" rather than how good the models are. So currently I would say 1. Anthropic 2. OpenAI and 3. DeepMind

@JeromeHPowell btw, you forgot to put a space between "2" and .xxx, and it turned into a link, and i didn't click on it but think you may want to add the space back in......................

oh yea, probably not a good webite to click on

@JeromeHPowell How about a wager, we will get fairly random to pick a number 1 or 2. If it's 1 i have to click the link on my school computer, and if it's 2, you have to

@JeromeHPowell i can do it when i get home, being on disciplinary probation from /realDonaldTrump/am-i-screwed-read-desc, it's prob not a great idea to be messing around on school wifi right now