Will ASI be developed 5+ years after AGI?
3
100Ṁ302040
37%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Update 2026-01-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): This market resolves YES if ASI (Artificial Superintelligence) is developed greater than 5 years after AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) is developed.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will we get AGI before 2036?
62% chance
Will AGI be achieved in the next 5 years?
40% chance
Will we get AGI before 2045?
77% chance
Will Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) lead directly to the development of Artificial Superintelligence (ASI)?
76% chance
Will we get AGI before 2028?
15% chance
Will we get AGI before July 1st 2026?
4% chance
Will we get AGI before 2035?
55% chance
Will we get AGI before 2047?
80% chance
Will we get AGI before 2046?
79% chance
Will we get AGI before 2040?
75% chance