I made a "first trial outcome" variant for those that wish to trade on that:

/EvanDaniel/tyler-robinson-sentence-first-resul

@Espoand @bens @Eliza @jcb I changed it to the first sentencing.

@realDonaldTrump I think it's kind of late to try to change this. I've been betting on what you said before. Others probably have, too.

@TylerMurphy what kind of odds are you giving to appeals tbh?

@bens significant if death penalty. Also likely to die before being executed

@bens https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/facts-and-research/data/death-penalty-census/key-findings

@TylerMurphy @bens @Eliza Can you weigh in on this? I would like @bens and/or @Eliza to have the final say just to have a mod opinion.

@realDonaldTrump I think after you already clarified it one way you have to stick to that. And you can change the title of the market to something like "ultimate result" to make it clear that it's about the final disposition after all appeals and etc. are exhausted, which has a lot of caveats that traders need to consider.

It's a totally valid question in its current state, but just maybe not in line with what some participants will be planning on betting on. I'm particularly interested in the delta between [Death penalty at 1st sentencing] and [Actually suffers death penalty], so markets like this still have value.

@TylerMurphy back to original

Small but important point regarding the resolution criteria: you can't appeal a not guilty verdict, so under most circumstances, an aquittal will be final with regard to whatever charges he faces (not that I think this is a likely outcome).

@realDonaldTrump I would recommend resolving as to the sentence he receives before appeals. Otherwise this might not resolve for decades.

@bens I tried to ask for this exact reason yesterday but the creator already clarified the opposite. You should make your own market that is about the first sentence instead, it would be easier to bet and reason about.

Arbitrage with https://manifold.markets/Mochi/tyler-robinson-executed-to-death-pe and https://manifold.markets/NivlacM/will-charlie-kirks-killer-receive-t

Tyler Robinson executed to death penalty?

48% chance. Resolution criteria This market refers to Tyler James Robinson (born 2003), the defendant charged in Utah for the September 10, 2025 killing of Charlie Kirk. (reuters.com) Resolves YES if Robinson is executed pursuant to a death sentence by any U.S. jurisdiction (state or federal), by any legally authorized method (e.g., lethal injection or firing squad). Verification will come from at least one of: Utah Department of Corrections or another responsible corrections authority, the Death Penalty Information Center (execution database), or two reputable national outlets (e.g., AP/Reuters/CNBC). Otherwise resolves NO if there is confirmation that Tyler Robinson will not be sentenced to death. If Robinson dies in custody without an execution, is resentenced off death row, or his conviction is vacated without a subsequent execution by the deadline, resolves NO. If executed by firing squad, it still resolves YES under Utah law. (en.wikipedia.org)

If he commits suicide before sentencing, is that “no punishment” or “other”?

@js I think N/A

Does it resolve on the first sentence? Or after appeals of the sentence?

@Eliza It resolves when he either goes into prison or gets the chair, physically.

@realDonaldTrump so none of the other options will ever resolve?

@retr0id Well going into prison does not mean a life sentence without possibility of parole.

I would say if he is acquitted, we would wait for the appeals

@realDonaldTrump if he's on death row for 20 years, it won't resolve until he's actually executed?

@realDonaldTrump if he's acquitted, there almost certainly cannot be appeals, lol.

@jcb Yeah this has a good chance of being a 20+ year market. Some death penalty cases end faster but it's generally rare. I was hoping it would be based on the first sentence which could be less than "several years".