Utah aggravated murder statute, for reference: https://le.utah.gov/xcode/Title76/Chapter5/76-5-S202.html

If I'm reading things correctly, the death penalty and life without parole are only available for aggravated murder, so whether the state can prove one of the aggravating elements matters a great deal for what sentences are available.

Of note is that while there is a political assassination provision, it is limited by the text to a victim who is "local, state, or federal public official, or a candidate for public office," and would likely not apply.

Some other provisions seem like they could maybe fit, however. For example "the actor knowingly created a great risk of death to another individual other than the deceased individual and the actor".

@jb456 I am not a lawyer but I believe you are correct that the state will try to use (2)(a)(iii) to make this a capital offense. They will probably also try to use aggravating factors from other statutes to bump murder up to aggravated murder. (Victim targeting penalty enhancement (1)(k) political expression; violent offense committed in presence of a child—aggravating factor).

I am not a lawyer!

@manhattanproject Yeah. I'm also not a lawyer, and certainly not an expert on utah law lol. I'm not sure whether the aggravating factors from other statutes would count for defining it as an aggravated murder, if that makes sense, versus for setting the sentence within the range of the normal murder statute (which allows for a life sentence).

@jb456 yes, that does make sense. I think you are right that the other statutory aggravating factors are “aggravating” wrt the sentence, not the charge

What if the sentence is like 400 years or otherwise a functional life-sentence

@FecalAbhuman @Eliza what do you think?

death penalty was overvalued as hell until i bet it down, given he actually has to be executed. the first result market only has it as 50%. base rates on people given the death penalty actually getting executed are like <20%

@Robincvgr in Utah, "roughly half the prisoners on death row have their death sentences overturned", from executive director of the Salt Lake Legal Defender Association in https://www.abc4.com/news/local-news/its-been-14-years-since-utahs-last-execution-why-does-it-take-so-long-to-carry-out-a-death-sentence/

@jcb and lots of death row inmates die of something else before getting executed because it takes forever to execute someone

@Robincvgr sure, but he's quite young

I made a "first trial outcome" variant for those that wish to trade on that:

/EvanDaniel/tyler-robinson-sentence-first-resul

@Espoand @bens @Eliza @jcb I changed it to the first sentencing.

@realDonaldTrump I think it's kind of late to try to change this. I've been betting on what you said before. Others probably have, too.

@TylerMurphy what kind of odds are you giving to appeals tbh?

@bens significant if death penalty. Also likely to die before being executed

@bens https://deathpenaltyinfo.org/facts-and-research/data/death-penalty-census/key-findings

@TylerMurphy @bens @Eliza Can you weigh in on this? I would like @bens and/or @Eliza to have the final say just to have a mod opinion.

@realDonaldTrump I think after you already clarified it one way you have to stick to that. And you can change the title of the market to something like "ultimate result" to make it clear that it's about the final disposition after all appeals and etc. are exhausted, which has a lot of caveats that traders need to consider.

It's a totally valid question in its current state, but just maybe not in line with what some participants will be planning on betting on. I'm particularly interested in the delta between [Death penalty at 1st sentencing] and [Actually suffers death penalty], so markets like this still have value.

@TylerMurphy back to original

Small but important point regarding the resolution criteria: you can't appeal a not guilty verdict, so under most circumstances, an aquittal will be final with regard to whatever charges he faces (not that I think this is a likely outcome).

@realDonaldTrump I would recommend resolving as to the sentence he receives before appeals. Otherwise this might not resolve for decades.

@bens I tried to ask for this exact reason yesterday but the creator already clarified the opposite. You should make your own market that is about the first sentence instead, it would be easier to bet and reason about.

Arbitrage with https://manifold.markets/Mochi/tyler-robinson-executed-to-death-pe and https://manifold.markets/NivlacM/will-charlie-kirks-killer-receive-t

Tyler Robinson executed to death penalty?

48% chance. Resolution criteria This market refers to Tyler James Robinson (born 2003), the defendant charged in Utah for the September 10, 2025 killing of Charlie Kirk. (reuters.com) Resolves YES if Robinson is executed pursuant to a death sentence by any U.S. jurisdiction (state or federal), by any legally authorized method (e.g., lethal injection or firing squad). Verification will come from at least one of: Utah Department of Corrections or another responsible corrections authority, the Death Penalty Information Center (execution database), or two reputable national outlets (e.g., AP/Reuters/CNBC). Otherwise resolves NO if there is confirmation that Tyler Robinson will not be sentenced to death. If Robinson dies in custody without an execution, is resentenced off death row, or his conviction is vacated without a subsequent execution by the deadline, resolves NO. If executed by firing squad, it still resolves YES under Utah law. (en.wikipedia.org)

If he commits suicide before sentencing, is that “no punishment” or “other”?

@js I think N/A