[SHORT FUSE] Trump Announcement Prop Bets
113
6.1kṀ59k
2099
98%
Manifold DOESN'T REALLY CARE ABOUT what is said (poll after market)
11%
At least one other answer on this market is not resolved by 9/4 12:01am ET
Resolved
YES
Mentions his health
Resolved
YES
Trump answers at least 1 question
Resolved
YES
Trump will mention how beautiful a woman is, that is NOT Melania.
Resolved
YES
Press conference happens.
Resolved
YES
Trump mentions J.D. Vance
Resolved
YES
Criticises one or more judge / judicial ruling
Resolved
YES
promotes his or his family's private ventures (eg speaks positively of trump coin or his golf courses)
Resolved
YES
Mentions crime
Resolved
YES
Mentions Los Angeles
Resolved
YES
Mentions Chicago
Resolved
YES
Does a hand gesture (any)
Resolved
YES
Mentions Biden's health
Resolved
YES
Department of Defense mentioned
Resolved
YES
Mentions anything about the US Space Force (eg. Space Command moving from Colorado to Alabama)
Resolved
YES
Says “frankly”
Resolved
YES
Trump mentions Gavin Newsom
Resolved
YES
Trump mentions China
Resolved
YES
Trump mentions Russia

What will happen at Trump's 2pm press conference? Add answers!

Manifold TV link: https://manifold.markets/tv/91

If I miss any during the press conference please comment!

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@traders Thank you so much for making this one of Manifold's best markets ever! This was awesome. I never expected it to have almost 300 answers.

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reposted

The announcement (to move US Space Command from Colorado to Alabama) is an interesting decision. The current base (Peterson Space Force Base) is actually in a Republican congressional district. And it's Republican representatives (including Lauren Boebert) who were most fighting for it to stay in Colorado, the Democratic representatives were less pressed about it.

https://www.denverpost.com/2025/04/10/colorado-space-command-headquarters-alabama-trump-jeff-crank-lauren-boebert/

So while the optics seem D vs R, it's really more Republican infighting

bought Ṁ17 NO

@realDonaldTrump It's pretty clear that Manifold didn't hate what was said, they just picked hate as a more apt descriptor than love. During the announcement both this option and the LOVE option were trading at well under 50%, which implies that nobody expected the poll to be LOVE versus HATE. If you were to run a poll of "did you HATE what was said during Trump's recent announcement" that would be a much more accurate poll to what is implied here, and I'm pretty sure that poll would resolve NO given that people overwhelmingly say they don't care (see https://manifold.markets/Marnix/do-you-really-care-about-what-trump)

@CollinMatthews The poll right now would be closer to "Manifold has a [negative/positive] opinion of the announcement" which is completely different than the stated option; I for one neither loved nor hated what was said

@CollinMatthews Fine I will N/A

@Marnix Please reply to this with the results of your poll when it closes

@traders Thank you so much for making this one of Manifold's best markets ever! This was awesome. I never expected it to have almost 300 answers.

Please check out the just-launched @ManifoldChallenge , a game show where you can win almost Ṁ40,000. https://manifold.markets/ManifoldChallenge/introducing-the-manifold-challenge

Introducing: The Manifold Challenge (WIN Ṁ35350+ 💵)
The Manifold Challenge 🕖 7 weeks. 👨 7 contestants. 💵 Ṁ37,350+. Ever wondered what would happen if you crossbred prediction markets, reality television, and people with too much time on their hands? This is it! How does it work? Each week: Contestants compete in a new challenge. Contestants submit a short video documenting their misery completing the tasks. Manifold watches. Manifold votes on which was the worst. The winner of the poll is eliminated. How can I enter? 💰 Step 1: Add Ṁ25 or Ṁ50 to this bounty. 📺 Step 2: Make a short video (1 minute or less) explaining why you should do the Manifold Challenge and DM a link to it to @ManifoldChallenge. 👨 Step 3: If you are selected to participate, you will be tagged on a post or comment by @ManifoldChallenge. 💸 Step 4: If you were selected, add Ṁ950 to this bounty. 😛 Step 5: Be an idiot during the weekly challenges! Enter today! Any questions? DM @ManifoldChallenge or comment. ❓ FAQ: Are there official markets about the Manifold Challenge? Markets are coming soon. There will be one official "Who will win?" market created by @ManifoldChallenge and there will also be sponsored side markets created by @evan. Is this a rip-off FOLDED? No, it's actually very different in terms of the structure of the game and the style of the challenges. Who is behind this? The Manifold Challenge was created by @realDonaldTrump and @Geofry. It was inspired by @LoganTurner's potato. The Manifold Challenge is sponsored by @SirSalty, @Manifold, @Bayesian and @Eliza, and contributors include @evan, @jim, @strutheo, @crowlsyong, @realDonaldTrump, and @Geofry. Am I allowed to make bribes and side deals related to the Challenge? Yes, as long as it follows Manifold's TOS and is not crazy (like Whales vs. Minnows shenanigans). What will the challenges be like? Challenges will be stupid and fun, and for the most part pretty open-ended. A good rule of thumb is that the more fun you're having with it, the better it will fare when it comes time for voting. How long will the challenges take me? Challenges get progressively harder. Below are estimates of how long it will take you to complete the actual planned challenges, not including any video editing. Please note Challenges 5 and 6 allot 2 weeks of planning. Week 1: 15 minutes. Week 2: 30 minutes. Week 3: 60 minutes. Week 4: 30-60 minutes. Week 5: 2.5-5 hours. Week 6: However long you choose! Can contestants be kicked out of the game? If contestants violate any of these outlined rules, the contestant will be disqualified. In the event a contestant is disqualified, a prospective contestant who initially applied will be selected to fill in for the disqualified competitor. If they no longer want to participate, another applicant will be contacted until there is a replacement. Can I quit? If you want, but it is discouraged and you will not receive a refund. If you do chicken out, you will replaced according to the aforementioned rules. What if I am late with a challenge submission? There is a 24 hour grace period that can be used once in the challenge. If you fail to submit your response after that time, you will be replaced according to the aforementioned rules. Are contestants allowed to vote in elimination polls? You are allowed to vote once. If you are suspected to have voted 2+ times on an alt account, you will be replaced. (See above.) What are the timeline and dates of the challenge? September 2: Challenge announced, contestant applications open. September 8: Contestant applications close. September 9: Contestants announced, official markets launch, first challenge announced. September 12: First challenge submissions due, voting opens. September 16: Elimination announced, second challenge announced. September 17: Second challenge submissions due, voting opens. September 23: Elimination announced, third challenge announced. September 26: Third challenge submissions due, voting opens. September 30: Elimination announced, fourth challenge announced. October 3: Fourth challenge submissions due, voting opens. October 7: Elimination announced, fifth challenge announced. October 10: Fifth challenge submissions due, voting opens. October 14: Elimination announced, final challenge announced. October 21: Final challenge submissions due, voting opens. October 25: Winner announced.
reposted

The announcement (to move US Space Command from Colorado to Alabama) is an interesting decision. The current base (Peterson Space Force Base) is actually in a Republican congressional district. And it's Republican representatives (including Lauren Boebert) who were most fighting for it to stay in Colorado, the Democratic representatives were less pressed about it.

https://www.denverpost.com/2025/04/10/colorado-space-command-headquarters-alabama-trump-jeff-crank-lauren-boebert/

So while the optics seem D vs R, it's really more Republican infighting

Also for bonus points, it's moving from Colorado Springs, CO to Huntsville, AL. Huntsville is actually more liberal than Colorado Springs is, so this is rewarding a Democrat voting area over a Republican voting area.

bought Ṁ10 NO

Great work everyone and thanks @realDonaldTrump for extremely speedy resolutions!

@Houston2025 Thanks!

@realDonaldTrump I helped him resolve, but he did 200% more work. He was instant, unstoppable, and dedicated!

Here's a poll to resolve this. It closes in 1 day. https://manifold.markets/Marnix/do-you-really-care-about-what-trump

@Houston2025 He said “fought” about fifteen minutes after the conference started

@realDonaldTrump

@Houston2025 “Hell hole”

@Houston2025 I was told during the live betting this explicitly does not count

bought Ṁ50 YES

@HenriThunberg "I'm not worried" is an example enough to resolve YES

bought Ṁ25 YES

Didn't he say announcement?

@TomWei He did, right at the start

bought Ṁ10 YES

@Robincvgr Does a name count? For Newsom

bought Ṁ10 YES

@Houston2025 "locationally"

bought Ṁ150 YES

@Houston2025 “Alabama”

@jks Four syllables checks out

bought Ṁ200 NO

started before 2:51 PM EST

Says announcement can already resolve YES

GOOD LUCK ALL!!

bought Ṁ165 YES

@Houston2025 I tried to place a 6000 bet to wrap this up

I guess the new market rules don't work the way I thought.

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