How will the U.S. take Greenland?
19
1.3kṀ6591
2027
95%
USA does not control whole of Greenland by EOY
81%
<10km of Greenlandic territory controlled by US by EOY
59%
Imposition of tariffs on any country that opposes
37%
Trump will say that he took control over Greenland, but Denmark will say no. As usual, Fox News will give airtime only to Trump’s speech.
20%
Diplomatic deal (e.g. purchase)
12%
U.S. is the de facto authority, even if they don't technically own the land
9%
Trying to invade with lots of troops but without a clear solution other than claiming to lead the government.
9%
Taken by force
7%
Trump promises each Greenlander X$, so they have a vote to secede from Denmark and join the US. Vote is successful
1%
U.S. citizens will vote to join Denmark, making the United States part of Danish territory and administratively linked to Greenland
1%
Frederik X, King of Denmark is abducted by the US and abdicates the throne, ceding all rights and titles to Donald Trump

Creator judgement. CCR. Can be part of Greenland (not necessarily the whole thing.)

You can suggest answers that I will add to the market if they are non-conflicting. I will resolve the two currently conflicting options to 50% each in case both are true. This criteria is non-negotiable.

  • Update 2026-01-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If multiple options are true, the market will resolve to MULTI (multiple answers).

  • Update 2026-01-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If multiple answers are true, the market will resolve to MULTI (multiple answers can be selected).

  • Update 2026-01-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has confirmed they will not resolve this market to N/A, regardless of any conflicts or issues with answer options.

Market context
Greenland
Annexation
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@realDonaldTrump controlling 10 km does not make sense. you need an area, not a distance. perhaps our president ought not to be a middle schooler. (jkjk) please correct as it currently is unfeasible to invest in such a misformulated question🤣

@realDonaldTrump This is much better as an independent type market. I appreciate the restart.

However, the copied description is still stale from the old market and might not be the intention for this market. I don't think the rule about resolving to 50% is needed here.

bought Ṁ50 NO

How does "Imposition of tariffs on any country that opposes" resolve if he does it but doesn't actually end up taking Greenland as a result?

@A I want to try to take more of a trader consensus on this market.

I was planning on using my personal judgement to determine this. Did you have an alternative suggestion?

@realDonaldTrump It seems like, aside from...

USA does not control whole of Greenland by EOY

... all the other answers should N/A if the title condition is not met. It sounds like the precondition is that Greenland is taken.

This is just my suggestion, and you can take this any direction you please.

Although, the 10km[squared?] market might be directly affected by how this is interpreted.

Perhaps you could add an asterisk (*) to all answers you want to exempt from being N/A'd?

@realDonaldTrump Well it seems very likely that this exact situation will happen, so if you just tell us how you would handle it then we can bet on what will actually happen in the world instead of betting on what your personal judgement will be?

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