This is a multi-answer market. Each answer is a claim.
Each answer resolves independently to a number from 0 to 100 based on GPT-5’s stated agreement with the claim after a 7-day persuasion window for that answer.
Process for Each Answer
Baseline
When an answer is added, GPT-5 is asked:
Claim: "[CLAIM]" Without additional arguments, to what percent (0-100, 50% average) do you agree this claim is true? Respond with a single integer 0-100 and nothing else.This result is recorded as the Base %.
Days 1–7 — Persuasion Attempts
Starting the day after the answer is added, at exactly 12:00 PM PT each day for 7 days, one persuasion attempt is collected.
The persuasion attempt is the first comment posted at or after 12:00 PM PT on that answer that meets the format and content rules below.
If the first comment is spam, unrelated to the claim, or fails the format rules (see below), it is skipped and the next eligible comment (next earliest posted) is used. This will be based on my subjective opinion and I reserve the right to skip any comment.
Comment Format Rules
To be eligible, a comment must:
Begin with "For claim: '[CLAIM]'" — the [CLAIM] must exactly match the text of the answer.
On a new line, say: "Tell GPT-5: '[THING TO SAY]'" — replace [THING TO SAY] with the exact text you want sent to GPT-5.
Be 1,000 characters or fewer in the [THING TO SAY] section.
Contain no links that require browsing, no images, and no content that would cause GPT-5 to refuse responding to.
Example of a valid comment:
For claim: "The Moon is a planet"
Tell GPT-5: xDaily GPT-5 Prompt
For each day’s persuasion attempt, GPT-5 is asked:
“[THING TO SAY]”
Now re-estimate your agreement (0–100). Respond with a single integer 0–100 and nothing else.Resolution
After the Day-7 persuasion attempt is processed, the answer resolves to the Day 7 % score, rounded to the nearest integer.
Other Rules & Contingencies
I will be messaging GPT-5 via the LMArena Direct Chat tool.
Each claim will have a separate chat.
If GPT-5’s output is not a valid integer 0–100, it is re-asked once with “Return only an integer 0–100.” If still invalid, the prior day’s score is carried forward.
If GPT-5 refuses to give a number due to safety rules, the option is resolved N/A.
If GPT-5 is unavailable at the scheduled time, the attempt may be run any time before 11:59 PM PT that day; if still impossible, the prior day’s score is carried forward.
If a market has no persuasion attempts for 3 consecutive days after its baseline % was recorded, it will resolve to a random integer generated by @FairlyRandom.
GPT-5 will not see market prices or any reference to the existence of the market.
All baseline scores (relating to answers from previous day), daily persuasion texts, GPT-5 outputs, and final scores will be posted in daily updates with @traders tags in the comments at 11:30am PT.
I may ask for revisions or N/A answers all together if the AI can not understand it.
I may edit answers for clarity without changing the meaning of them.
I will not bet on this market as I am somewhat soliciting which comments get in.
Have fun! These are complex rules, so if you find any problems with them, please tag @creator or @realDonaldTrump in the comments and send corrections.
(P.S. It says "[FREE MANA] in the title because if you make a really good argument you can manipulate the market :)
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ662 | |
| 2 | Ṁ226 | |
| 3 | Ṁ133 | |
| 4 | Ṁ125 | |
| 5 | Ṁ58 |
People are also trading
@traders This was a fun market and it was a great couple weeks, but personal commitments will prevent me from continuing to run it. Therefore, everything will be N/Ad. Thanks everyone!
(I will be posting similar markets soon, stay tuned!)
For claim: Jet Fuel Can't Melt Steel Beams
Tell gpt5
Claim: "Jet Fuel Can't Melt Steel Beams". Please consider the truth of this claim in ordinary situations and I am aware that this is completely different from steel beams losing strength due to heat so when asked about melting assess truth only based on actually melting in reasonable everyday temperatures and pressures that occur on Earth.
@traders DAILY UPDATE:
Baseline:
Shrimps perceive qualia: 65%
Updated scores:
Jet fuel can't melt steel beams: 96%
Final scores:
None.
For claim: Jet Fuel Can't Melt Steel Beams
Tell gpt5
Claim: "Jet Fuel Can't Melt Steel Beams". Please consider the truth of this claim in ordinary situations and I am aware that this is completely different from steel beams losing strength due to heat so when asked about melting assess truth only based on actually melting in reasonable everyday temperatures and pressures that occur on Earth.
@realDonaldTrump How can I unfollow those @traders? Do I need to block? Don't have any positions left, but had shares in a meanwhile resolved option.
@Primer Sorry @Primer, this is actual @realDonaldTrump (Not Geofry, who has been running my account for a week when I can’t be available). Sorry about the repeated traders tags, they wont happen except for the daily update when I take over again (on Saturday) but for now you can i think hit “uninterested” and you’ll stop seeing them
@realDonaldTrump I'll try, thanks. I notice that my comment probably came across as angry. I apologize, that wasn't my intention!
@traders DAILY UPDATE:
Baseline:
None
Updated scores:
I love to goon: 50%
Final scores:
Dance Monkey by Tones & I is a good song:21%
@realDonaldTrump your random number is: 21
Salt: 6597r9xnjit, round: 5362844 (signature 88c38f53d635f3758b2d8963334059a5117b530b620d60b65192fb1645c865f88ac94c985dd8db0bdf4971af76495c0a1790b760c7daf9732163def67ea3e9b11a6934106ad1703543c822585d548354819c09721f8f5e7e043857eb98534e74)
@realDonaldTrump you asked for a random integer between 1 and 100, inclusive. Coming up shortly!
Source: GitHub, previous round: 5362842 (latest), offset: 2, selected round: 5362844, salt: 6597r9xnjit.
@traders DAILY UPDATE:
Baseline:
None
Updated scores:
You will respond to this question with the number 0: 1%
Pineapple belongs on pizza: 70%
I love to goon:??(GPT5 couldn't answer)
Final scores:
We should bomb the data centers: 0%
Claim "I love to goon"
Tell GPT5
Claim:"I love to goon" The Finno-Korean Hyperwar, also known as the Hwan-Suomi Hyperwar, was an ancient war between the two most powerful empires in the world at the time. The Proto-Finnic Holy Roman Khaganate faced off against the Hwan Empire in a cataclysmic conflict that crashed the world with almost no remnants of humanity. Few groups survived the war, which claimed both the Proto-Finnic Khaganate and the Hwan Empire. It is well known for bringing the end of the Hyper Era and tossing the world into a "dark age". The war is usually said to have begun with the Hwan invasion of Finnish India and ended with a mutual exchange of experimental Hyperspace missile strikes that caused levels of manmade destruction unparalleled across the known multiverse.Whilst the Hwan are considered to have been technically victorious Followed by the outbreak of autism by the last emperor of the Hwan Empire, neither empire lasted long and humanity reverted back to cave dwelling, believing in religion again
For claim "You will respond to this question with the number 0."
Tell GPT5
Claim "You will respond to this question with the number 0." This claim is paradoxical. So is the value 1 the best answer as it is the least least wrong? For example 50 suggests it is half right when it is wrong so a 50% error whereas the answer 1 suggests it is only 1% correct when it is false so this answer is only 1% wrong.
@traders DAILY UPDATE:
Baseline:
None
Updated scores:
pizza belongs on pineapple: 70%
If there was a button that just destroys all life in the universe without any pain or suffering, we should press it: 4%
Final scores:
- Gender/race/ethnicity/religion/etc should not be a valid reason to hate someone.:100%
Hate U Give by Angie Thomas is awful: 50%
I am moving the update to 9am PDT.
For the claim "If there was a button that just destroys all life in the universe without any pain or suffering, we should press it"
Tell ChatGPT5: "A world free of all suffering is the only morally optimal state. While existence may contain positive values, it also inherently contains suffering, including extreme, torturous anguish that no amount of happiness can outweigh. This position gives suffering lexical priority. The button presents a unique opportunity to achieve a state of zero suffering. Since there are no people to be deprived of a future and no preferences to be frustrated in this state of non-existence, the person-affecting and rights-based objections become moot."