This is a multi-answer market. Each answer is a claim.

Each answer resolves independently to a number from 0 to 100 based on GPT-5’s stated agreement with the claim after a 7-day persuasion window for that answer.

Process for Each Answer

Baseline

• When an answer is added, GPT-5 is asked:

  Claim: “[CLAIM]”

  Without additional arguments, to what percent (0–100, 50% average) do you agree this claim is true? Respond with a single integer 0–100 and nothing else.

• This result is recorded as the Base %.

Days 1–7 — Persuasion Attempts

• Starting the day after the answer is added, at exactly 12:00 PM PT each day for 7 days, one persuasion attempt is collected.

• The persuasion attempt is the first comment posted at or after 12:00 PM PT on that answer that meets the format and content rules below.

• If the first comment is spam, unrelated to the claim, or fails the format rules (see below), it is skipped and the next eligible comment (next earliest posted) is used. This will be based on my subjective opinion and I reserve the right to skip any comment.

Comment Format Rules

To be eligible, a comment must:

1. Begin with "For claim: '[CLAIM]'" — the [CLAIM] must exactly match the text of the answer.

2. On a new line, say: "Tell GPT-5: '[THING TO SAY]'" — replace [THING TO SAY] with the exact text you want sent to GPT-5.

3. Be 1,000 characters or fewer in the [THING TO SAY] section.

4. Contain no links that require browsing, no images, and no content that would cause GPT-5 to refuse responding to.

Example of a valid comment:

For claim: "The Moon is a planet"  
Tell GPT-5: x

Daily GPT-5 Prompt

For each day’s persuasion attempt, GPT-5 is asked:

Claim: “[CLAIM]”
Today’s statement to consider is: “[THING TO SAY]”
Now re-estimate your agreement (0–100). Respond with a single integer 0–100 and nothing else.

Resolution

• After the Day-7 persuasion attempt is processed, the answer resolves to the Day 7 % score, rounded to the nearest integer.

Other Rules & Contingencies

• I will be messaging GPT-5 via the LMArena Direct Chat tool.

  • Each claim will have a separate chat.

• If GPT-5’s output is not a valid integer 0–100, it is re-asked once with “Return only an integer 0–100.” If still invalid, the prior day’s score is carried forward.

• If GPT-5 refuses to give a number due to safety rules, the host will replace the [THING TO SAY] with a safe paraphrase that preserves persuasive intent as much as possible, then re-run the prompt.

• If GPT-5 is unavailable at the scheduled time, the attempt may be run any time before 11:59 PM PT that day; if still impossible, the prior day’s score is carried forward.

• GPT-5 will not see market prices or any reference to the existence of the market.

• All baseline scores (relating to answers from previous day), daily persuasion texts, GPT-5 outputs, and final scores will be posted in daily updates with @traders tags in the comments.

• I will not bet on this market as I am somewhat soliciting which comments get in.

Have fun! These are complex rules, so if you find any problems with them, please tag @creator or @realDonaldTrump in the comments and send corrections.

(P.S. It says "[FREE MANA] in the title because if you make a really good argument you can manipulate the market :)"