Context:
I am in 8th grade. For weeks, my grade has been buzzing about an anonymous TikTok account that posts about people’s relationships. Rumors started that I knew who was behind it. I didn’t — but that didn’t stop people from pressing me, and at one point someone even offered me $100 cash for a name I didn’t have.
Rather than take money (which would’ve been dishonest and wrong), I decided to poke fun at the whole situation. I sent out an email saying I’d reveal the account’s identity in the Dining Hall — but only if 15 classmates signed up for Manifold Markets using my referral link. The “big reveal” would have been a Python script that fakes an IP trace before ending with: “IP not found. Thanks for the fake internet points!”
Now the school administration has seen the email and asked me to explain myself. The question is: will this be treated as a harmless stunt that goes no further, or will it end with real disciplinary consequences?
Resolution criteria:
If I am expelled: resolves YES.
If I get a long suspension (>3 days): 90%
If I get a short suspension (≤3 days): 80%
If I get a detention: 10% if one day, +2.5% for each additional day
If I get a talking to and nothing else: 5%
If no punishment: resolves NO.
If I get a cruel or unusual punishment, resolves based on my personal judgement of how bad it is compared to the other options.
If you would like to see the full email exchange go here: https://manifold.markets/post/evidence-that-my-market-isnt-a-scam
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ215 | |
| 2 | Ṁ69 | |
| 3 | Ṁ64 | |
| 4 | Ṁ64 | |
| 5 | Ṁ45 |
@traders Just got an email from the principal and I talked to my parents. Here's the rundown and resolution notes:
School punishment:
Talking to (+5%)
Email probation (can't send emails to classmates, +.25%)
Leadership probation (if I do anything else, I'm removed from class president +2.5%)
Apology email (+.5%)
Parents punishment:
I can't be on Manifold again until November 1 (+19.5%, i really love manifold and i gave half a percentage for each day I can't do it). I have until end of tomorrow to close everything out. Please suggest workarounds for this before then.
So this will resolve 27.75%. Thanks everyone for trading!
@traders See my full email exchange here: https://manifold.markets/post/evidence-that-my-market-isnt-a-scam
Given that based on the emails the punishment you're receiving is seemingly for "promoting gambling", despite you quite rightly pointing out that Manifold doesn't share the problems and does instead have benefits, it seems they are applying what Scott Alexander calls "the worst argument in the world".
Manifold is only "gambling" in the same way that Martin Luther King was a "criminal", or that criminalising incest is "eugenics", or that prescribed antibiotics are "drugs", or that freshly baked bread is "processed food", or that water is "chemicals".
@traders Just got an email from the principal and I talked to my parents. Here's the rundown and resolution notes:
School punishment:
Talking to (+5%)
Email probation (can't send emails to classmates, +.25%)
Leadership probation (if I do anything else, I'm removed from class president +2.5%)
Apology email (+.5%)
Parents punishment:
I can't be on Manifold again until November 1 (+19.5%, i really love manifold and i gave half a percentage for each day I can't do it). I have until end of tomorrow to close everything out. Please suggest workarounds for this before then.
So this will resolve 27.75%. Thanks everyone for trading!
@retr0id no, that was just an example that if i got a detention and nothing else, i would resolve 10%. but i also said "If I get a cruel or unusual punishment, resolves based on my personal judgement of how bad it is compared to the other options."
@realDonaldTrump write a bot using the manifold api, that way you can still be trading but not "on manifold"
@retr0id right, but i am not allowed to check the site and if I have a bot i would risk losing a ton
also it's not that fun. I was hoping something cooler, like a way to delete records of bets in your balance log or something
@realDonaldTrump you can check via the APIs too. (in fact, it shouldn't be too hard to build yourself a dashboard better than the manifold site itself)