Hinge #4 bet proposed in this post: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/45oxYwysFiqwfKCcN/untitled-draft-keg3

[Does] any G7 country manage three straight years of six‑percent real GDP‑per‑capita growth before general‑purpose manipulation robots are common. If that occurs, the reaction‑wheel model wins.

The other bets:

#1: https://manifold.markets/rayman2000/nvidias-datacenter-revenue-and-bigt

#2: https://manifold.markets/rayman2000/ai-model-training-time-decreases-fo

#3: https://manifold.markets/rayman2000/revenue-per-deployed-h100-exceeds-1

#5: https://manifold.markets/rayman2000/a-topthree-ai-lab-delays-a-frontier

Meta-market for majority of the five bets: https://manifold.markets/rayman2000/will-a-majority-of-the-5-hingequest?play=true