Hinge #3 bet proposed in this post: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/45oxYwysFiqwfKCcN/untitled-draft-keg3

If [the revenue per deployed H100] exceeds one‑hundred‑thousand dollars, the efficiency threshold the short camp predicts has arrived. If it remains close to today’s ten‑thousand, the sceptics will have been vindicated.

The other bets:

#1: https://manifold.markets/rayman2000/nvidias-datacenter-revenue-and-bigt

#2: https://manifold.markets/rayman2000/ai-model-training-time-decreases-fo

#4: https://manifold.markets/rayman2000/g7-country-manages-three-years-of-6

#5: https://manifold.markets/rayman2000/a-topthree-ai-lab-delays-a-frontier

Meta-market for majority of the five bets: https://manifold.markets/rayman2000/will-a-majority-of-the-5-hingequest?play=true