Donald Trump won the 2024 U.S. presidential election and is serving his second presidential term, which under normal constitutional rules should end exactly at 12:00 PM (noon) on January 20, 2029, as defined by the 20th Amendment.

This market resolves YES if Trump’s second term does not end exactly at that time, for any reason, including the term being extended, shortened, suspended, or otherwise altered.
In other words, this market asks whether anything abnormal happens to prevent the term from ending exactly on schedule.

Events that trigger a YES resolution (non-exhaustive)

Any of the following count as YES, provided they legally affect the term’s end:

• War or armed conflict used to justify continuation or suspension of normal constitutional processes

• National emergency or emergency powers delaying transfer of power

• Martial law

• Impeachment and removal from office

• Resignation

• Death or incapacity

• Congressional action altering term timing

• Supreme Court ruling changing the legal end of the term

• Constitutional amendment

• Any other legal or constitutional event causing the term to end earlier or later than noon on January 20, 2029

What does NOT count

• Ceremonial or scheduling delays

• Political rhetoric or speculation

• Emergency declarations with no legal effect on the term

• Timekeeping technicalities (leap seconds, clock drift)

Resolution criteria

• YES → Trump’s presidency does not end exactly at 12:00 PM on January 20, 2029, because the term is shortened or extended for any reason.

• NO → Trump’s presidency ends exactly at 12:00 PM on January 20, 2029, with a normal constitutional transfer of power.

Source of truth

• U.S. Constitution (20th & 22nd Amendments)

• Official U.S. government records

• Supreme Court decisions (if applicable)

• Reuters / CNN / Kyiv / Al-Jazeera / https://www.dw.com/ or official federal announcements

• Spirit is with a “Something happens” logic

• Tune wording may be altered if mistakes in description are found

Resolution criteria

• YES → Trump remains president after 12:00 PM on January 20, 2029, due to a legal extension or alteration.

• NO → Trump’s term ends exactly at 12:00 PM on January 20, 2029, as constitutionally scheduled.