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MANIFOLD
Will aging be solved by EOY 2035?
9
Ṁ100Ṁ611
2035
6%
chance

"Solved" means aging is reversible and humans are biologically immortal. Resolves "yes" if I can purchase the solution for less than 10^25 arithmetic operations (~$5m in 2026). Resolves "not applicable" if humans go extinct before a solution is discovered.

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For calibration on what could even be observed by the end of 2035: no intervention has made any mammal biologically immortal. The best-replicated drug effect is rapamycin in the NIA Interventions Testing Program, median lifespan up 23% in males and 26% in females at the highest dose (Miller et al. 2014), which is a slowdown with the mortality curve still rising with age. The only placebo-controlled lifespan trials of anti-aging drugs outside the lab are in dogs (TRIAD, funded through 2029, and Loyal's STAY study, up to four years from a 2025 enrolment close), so by 2035 the lifespan evidence in any animal that shares our environment will come from those. A human cohort enrolled at 65 reaches median survival about 21 years later. The arithmetic with sources (mine): https://w0lph.github.io/k9/why-dogs.html?v=2