Will Apple announce a non-trivial robot by 2030?
Will Apple announce a non-trivial robot by 2030?
13
1kṀ3302030
40%
chance
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Context
There have been a lot of rumors about Apple working on "personal robotic devices" including a "home robot" and "humanoid technology." The spirit of this market is to track if anything significant will come out of that
Minutia
Trivial
"Room assistant that could point a screen at you constantly"
Smart locks or button pushers
HomePod that nods or shakes
Non-Trivial
Robot vacuum or mop
Robot that moves around a la Amazon's Astro robot
Robot that can do home chores
I will accept requests for clarification while this market is new
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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