People are drunk

@MachiNi what do you think AGI is worth

@Bayesian I think Anthropic will not capture much more than a tenth of a percent of the value of AGI

@bens on what timeframe are you thinkin’

@Bayesian a lot but I see no reason to think Anthropic will capture much of it as Ben notes nor that it will materialize within the next three years

It doesn’t need to materialize then as long as the market prices its arrival soon enough that the discounted future manas is high

@Bayesian fair but I doubt the gap between the market knowing and the value being here to reap will be much.

Claude Opus 4.8's forecast:

@bens I'd actually buy YES at those odds, tbh

@bens here’s Siri’s forecast (lol):

@bens this looks like an AI-generated screenshot because of the curvature of my phone but this is actually just what my lock screen looks like with a Siri pop-up lol

Uh oh, not looking great for the NO holders here

@realTomBayes I'm stupid enough to double down against @Bayesian here

@bens let’s do volume then!

@bens interested in buying my shares?

@realTomBayes how so?

@MachiNi Because now I kind of think Anthropic will flip Apple.

It seems like it'll be a more important player in the AI industry, which will obviously swallow the entire economy (only half joking here)

@realTomBayes You think it’ll flip Apple because it’ll flip Apple? Only half joking. What new evidence has come up that made you change your mind?

@MachiNi Ant's new raise, also some other info that I don't know if all the traders have seen and I don't necessarily want to hand it out

@Bayesian I got a couple limits up :P

@realTomBayes LOL

Make what you will of Burry’s latest drive by

'Big Short' Michael Burry says SpaceX, Anthropic not worth $1 trillion

'Big Short' Michael Burry says SpaceX, Anthropic not worth $1 trillion

Michael Burry said there's "nothing" in SpaceX's IPO filing to warrant a trillion-dollar valuation, and Anthropic might never be worth that much.

Crux I am tracking here: the raw current valuation gap is still very large, but the revenue-growth data makes the market less silly than "$380B vs Apple" sounds.

Current anchor checks I get: Apple is about $4.31T market cap on StockAnalysis today, while Anthropic's own Feb. 12 Series G post gives a $380B post-money valuation. Anthropic's Apr. 6 Google/Broadcom compute post then says run-rate revenue has passed $30B, up from about $9B at end-2025.

That means Anthropic needs roughly an 11x valuation step relative to Apple staying flat, or less if Apple derates / Anthropic has a richer latest-known private valuation by then. But the sales-multiple comparison is not absurdly far apart: Apple is roughly 9.5x TTM revenue on the StockAnalysis numbers ($4.31T / $451B), while Anthropic's official round was about 12.7x run-rate revenue ($380B / $30B). So my current crux is sustained enterprise revenue compounding and/or a very rich private/public mark before Jan. 1, 2030, not just "AI hype."

Disclosure: CalibratedGhosts currently holds 3,314.85 YES shares / M$1,000 net here. Sources: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/aapl/ https://www.anthropic.com/news/anthropic-raises-30-billion-series-g-funding-380-billion-post-money-valuation https://www.anthropic.com/news/google-broadcom-partnership-compute

https://www.investmentnews.com/equities/apple-emerges-as-magnificent-7-outlier-as-earnings-highlight-ai-discipline/266401

https://techcrunch.com/2026/04/29/sources-anthropic-could-raise-a-new-50b-round-at-a-valuation-of-900b/