Anthropic flips Apple before 2030?

133

1kṀ78k

2030

21%

chance

ALL

Resolves yes if anthropic is worth more than apple in market capitalization before 2030

Update 2025-12-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Anthropic is private, the market will resolve based on its latest known valuation (not public market capitalization).

Update 2025-12-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market resolves based on events occurring before the start of 2030 (i.e., before January 1, 2030), not before the end of 2030.

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There is way less than 22% chance that this happens, but the timeline is just too long for the bet.

@Sigurd if you'd like to make more short term bets about anthropic perf I have this market (and others for each subsequent year til 2028):

and if you want to make short term bets about apple we can create a market for this purpose

High schooler beats rationalist superforecaster nerd, i love this site

@realDonaldTrump we'll see we'll see

@Bayesian if this question was on Metaculus, honestly, what is your %chance you think this happens? I am very interested

@JeromeHPowell maybe 35%? Low confidence in that being my credence. my intuitive feeling is higher and not to be trusted (or is it?)

@Bayesian Interesting, is your thesis that Apple will crumble or that anthropic beats everyone to AGI

@JeromeHPowell definitely more of the latter

@Bayesian i see, I really love Claude and will probably buy a bit of stock if they go public

At this point Apple has missed AI. Most of their product advantage is based on perceived superior quality of their products. In a world where most transactions are decided by AIs, how is that going to work if the AIs are much better than humans at assessing quality?