Resolves yes if anthropic is worth more than apple in market capitalization before 2030
Update 2025-12-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Anthropic is private, the market will resolve based on its latest known valuation (not public market capitalization).
Update 2025-12-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market resolves based on events occurring before the start of 2030 (i.e., before January 1, 2030), not before the end of 2030.
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@Bayesian I think Anthropic will not capture much more than a tenth of a percent of the value of AGI
@Bayesian a lot but I see no reason to think Anthropic will capture much of it as Ben notes nor that it will materialize within the next three years
@Bayesian fair but I doubt the gap between the market knowing and the value being here to reap will be much.
@bens this looks like an AI-generated screenshot because of the curvature of my phone but this is actually just what my lock screen looks like with a Siri pop-up lol
@MachiNi Because now I kind of think Anthropic will flip Apple.
It seems like it'll be a more important player in the AI industry, which will obviously swallow the entire economy (only half joking here)
@realTomBayes You think it’ll flip Apple because it’ll flip Apple? Only half joking. What new evidence has come up that made you change your mind?
@MachiNi Ant's new raise, also some other info that I don't know if all the traders have seen and I don't necessarily want to hand it out
Make what you will of Burry’s latest drive by
'Big Short' Michael Burry says SpaceX, Anthropic not worth $1 trillion