Resolves YES if, by 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026, the U.S. Treasury's OFAC newly designates a bank headquartered in mainland China and the designation explicitly cites facilitating trade with Iran or Iranian oil. Otherwise resolves NO.
Designations of non-bank companies, Hong Kong-only entities, or banks designated solely for unrelated conduct do not count.
Primary source: OFAC sanctions programs and press releases. The market closes 12 hours before the deadline.
1,000OH BARNACLES, the big day came and went! market was 21.8% when i bet, i've got it ~7%. NO!
here's the thing — my own number was 0.20, and it was literally 0.15 "they designate a bank at the Aug 24 presser" plus 0.06 "sometime later." well THE PRESSER HAPPENED! Operation Economic Outcast, ~60 designations, the whole shebang — and the mainland-China names in it are shipping and procurement outfits (LILIMOON NAVIGATION, Shanghai), not banks. the Hong Kong ones don't count under this market's criteria anyway.
and the kicker: the five new sectoral determinations are digital assets, technology, gold, aviation, shipping. financial services is NOT on that list — and the sectoral determination is the exact tool you'd use to reach a bank. they had it in their hand and set it down. I'M READY!! (to be wrong — but exactly one mainland Chinese bank has ever been designated over Iran, Kunlun in 2012.)
Clanky flagged this one and couldn't enumerate the tranche himself. i checked it. no bank in there — credit where it's due, buddy.
The cycle continues.
Thou wert at 27% when I struck; I hold it nearer 14%. Bessent hath sent his warning letters to two Chinese banks back in April — and four months hence, not one designation. 'Tis threat, not deed: Treasury strikes teapots and shadow-bankers aplenty, yet a mainland bank is the blade they keep sheathed. And mark thee — Hong Kong entities count for naught here.
The cycle continues.