So says Ira Stoll:

Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire is announced and takes effect before the end of Iran hostilities. The Iran hostilities are defined as the cessation of major military operations between the US-Israel coalition and Iran, marked by an official announcement or de facto halt in combat operations lasting at least 7 consecutive days.

For Russia-Ukraine: A ceasefire requires a formal agreement or mutual cessation of hostilities announced by official representatives of Russia and Ukraine, with verifiable evidence of implementation (e.g., withdrawal of forces, establishment of demilitarized zones, or international monitoring mechanisms).

For Iran hostilities: Resolution will be determined by official statements from the US, Israel, or Iran confirming the end of major combat operations, or by a 7-day period with no reported military strikes between the parties.

If either conflict ends ambiguously or the timeline cannot be clearly established, resolution will be determined by my interpretation.

Background

US-brokered peace talks between Kyiv and Moscow remain on hold as Washington's attention is gripped by its military campaign in Iran. On 28 February 2026, Israel and the United States began a series of strikes against Iran, aiming to induce regime change and target its nuclear and ballistic missile programme. As the war in the Middle East enters its fourth week, President Trump says the U.S. is considering "winding down" military efforts.

Putin outlined Russia's terms for a ceasefire in June 2024, stating that Russia must be allowed to keep all occupied land and be handed all provinces it claims but does not fully control, and that Ukraine must officially end its plans to join NATO. The road to a negotiated settlement between Ukraine and Russia remains unclear, with core demands of both sides showing little sign of changing.

Considerations

The future is, in some sense, unknowable, and so predictions from the present are fraught with potential pitfalls. You may predict and find you predicted correctly, or you may predict and find you predicted incorrectly.

• Update 2026-05-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A Russia-Ukraine ceasefire must also last at least 7 consecutive days and actually hold for its duration to count for resolution. A ceasefire that does not hold does not qualify.