Who will reach 60% first, before Election Day? (Kamala/Trump/Neither)
➕
Plus
131
Ṁ43k
resolved Oct 22
WALZ v. VANCE
100%99.0%
Trump
0.6%
Kamala
0.3%
Neither

NOTE:

in order to prevent a confusing “reaching of 60% first,” resolution of this market will be determined by analyzing the electionbettingodds “last day” chart for the 2024 US Presidency (data plotted every 30ish-minutes).

Through analyzing the graph between market creation and 11/4 (11:59:59 pm EST), if at any static point, I determine a candidates odds has reached at least 60.0% the market will resolve YES for the respective candidate and NO for “neither” and the other candidate.

To further ensure to you bias has no roll in determining the “official 60% being reached” I will not trade in this market.

If the Kamala and Trump odds each never reach 60% before the eod (11:59:59 pm EST) November 4th 2024, “Neither” will resolve YES and others will resolve NO.

Any glitches on their website will not resolve this. I will wait until the point in question is static and the following point is plotted to determine if it was a 60% being reached at that moment.

Comment any questions or news you have! 💙

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Trump

Resolves YES now @traders

bought Ṁ7,221 Trump YES

Resolves Trump

If this market resolve to neither then, my market will be under 20% and over 20% otherwise

https://manifold.markets/ChinmayTheMathGuy/largest-gap-between-trumpharris-in

here’s another that ends the day of the election at 11:59:59 pm EST.

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