Who will reach 60% first? (Kamala/Trump/Neither)
350
Ṁ190k
Nov 7
54%
Kamala
31%
Trump
14%
Neither

NOTE:

in order to prevent a confusing “reaching of 60% first,” resolution of this market will be determined by analyzing the electionbettingodds “last day” chart for the 2024 US Presidency (data plotted every 30ish-minutes).

Through analyzing the graph between market creation and Election Day (11/5 at 11:59:59 pm EST), if at any static point, I determine a candidates odds has reached at least 60.0% the market will resolve YES for the respective candidate and NO for “neither” and the other candidate.

To further ensure to you bias has no roll in determining the “official 60% being reached” I will not trade in this market.

If the Kamala and Trump odds each never reach 60% before the eod November 5th 2024 (11:59:59 pm EST), “Neither” will resolve YES and others will resolve NO.

Any glitches on their website will not resolve this. I will wait until the point in question is static and the following point is plotted to determine if it was a 60% being reached at that moment.

Comment any questions or news you have! 💙

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“Usually a winner is declared on the night of the election, but in 2020 it took a few days to count all the votes”

if something similar happens again this could be a very interesting question on that day (11/5)

What's the definition of EOD? Midnight EST?

Yes basically midnight est, I’ll add it to be more exact, thank you David 🫡

since im just using the graph and timestamp of the point I can be specific to the seconds place of the timestamp. 11:59:59pm EST on November 5th will be the last moment a solid point for consideration can be plotted. The point must be solid, so if it’s a new point and the timestamp is static (probably just wait for following point to begin) before 12:00:00 then I will consider it.

related:

@pluffASMR Why EOD 11/5 rather than 11/4? Just wondering

“Usually a winner is declared on the night of the election, but in 2020 it took a few days to count all the votes”

if something similar happens again this could be a very interesting question on that day (11/5)

(“neither” should be pretty low)

semiotic was too fast. you just had to write that first message after I put in a "neither" limit 😂