Will the elected President be the first candidate to reach 60%?

Question

NOTE:

in order to prevent a confusing “reaching of 60% first,” resolution of this market will be determined by analyzing the electionbettingodds “last day” chart for the 2024 US Presidency (data plotted every 30ish-minutes).

Rules:

Through analyzing the graph, if at a static point, before eod November 5th, I determine a candidate’s odds has reached at least 60.0%, then the market will resolve YES after that candidate is officially elected and NO after that candidate not elected.

Since trump already reached 60% this will resolve YES if, between market creation and eod November 5th 2024, nobody else reaches 60% again, and Trump goes on to be certified president this election.

To further ensure to you bias has no roll in determining the “official 60% being reached” I will not trade in this market.

Any glitches on their website will not resolve this. I will wait until the point in question is static and the following point is plotted to determine if it was a 60% being reached at that moment.

Comment any questions or news you have! 💙

Manifold Markets · Accepted Answer

Yes — resolved on Feb 2, 2025 by Manifold Markets prediction market.